US Economic Outlook Fed to remain on side lines as economy heats up Although trade tensions and the presidential election remain key downside risks, we expect looser financial conditions to drive an acceleration in GDP growth from the second half of next year onwards... 16th December 2019 · 24 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) The disappointing 0.2% m/m rise in retail sales in November suggests that real consumption growth was a little weaker in the fourth quarter than the 2.0% annualised reading we had pencilled in, but... 13th December 2019 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed begins prolonged hold The Fed called time on its easing cycle today by leaving the fed funds target range unchanged at 1.50%-1.75% and striking a more upbeat tone in the policy statement. With economic growth stabilising... 11th December 2019 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) A rise in energy prices pushed headline CPI inflation up to a one-year high last month, but the stability of core inflation suggests that underlying price pressures remain subdued. In that environment... 11th December 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Nov.) The much stronger than expected 266,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in November was flattered by the return of 41,000 striking GM workers but, even allowing for that, it suggests labour market... 6th December 2019 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Productivity growth may still be accelerating Recent payroll employment growth is likely to be revised down in the annual revision early next year, which is unquestionably a negative. But the flip-side is that productivity growth must have been... 4th December 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Nov.) The small decline in the ISM manufacturing index to 48.1 in November, from 48.3, left it close to the decade-low reached in September. Despite the improvement some of the alternative manufacturing... 2nd December 2019 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly External drag starting to fade We still expect GDP growth to slow a little further over the coming months, but the latest data suggest that the slowdown in the fourth quarter won’t be quite as bad as we had previously feared. 27th November 2019 · 8 mins read
US Chart Pack Economy nearing a turning point The latest activity data suggest that economic growth will slow to just 1.0% annualised in the fourth quarter, from 1.9% in the third, but there are growing hopes that may prove to be the nadir. Much... 20th November 2019 · 9 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) The 0.3% m/m rise in retail sales in October illustrates that while consumer spending growth is slowing gradually, it remains a relative bright spot. We expect real consumption growth to slow to... 15th November 2019 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Downside risks starting to fade We still expect GDP growth to slow a little further in the fourth quarter, but the recent stabilisation in the activity surveys, along with the growing prospect of a meaningful trade truce with China... 8th November 2019 · 8 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Sep.) The narrowing in the trade deficit to $52.5bn in September, from $55.0bn, confirms that net trade was broadly neutral for third-quarter GDP growth, although we expect it to become a renewed drag in... 5th November 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct.) The muted rebound in the ISM manufacturing index to 48.3 in October, which left it only slightly higher that September’s decade low of 47.8, takes some of the shine off the better-than-expected... 1st November 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response GDP (Q3) The 1.9% annualised increase in third-quarter GDP, down only marginally from the 2.0% gain in the second, was a little stronger than we had expected. But it still pushed the economy’s annual growth... 30th October 2019 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack Recession fears ease, but GDP growth still slowing The news of an apparent trade “deal” between the US and China has pushed back the threat of further tariffs and helped to un-invert the yield curve, but economic growth still appears to be slowing... 21st October 2019 · 8 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) The muted gain in core consumer prices in September illustrates that, even after the introduction of additional tariffs on Chinese imports, inflationary pressures are still well contained. In that... 10th October 2019 · 2 mins read
