US Economics Update UI expansion to cushion blow from layoffs The significant increase in unemployment insurance payments included in the recent fiscal package means that many claimants could end up being paid close to what they previously earned. This suggests... 8th April 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economic Outlook Virus disruption will only be partly reversed in H2 As a result of the coronavirus and the containment measures put in place to constrain its spread, we now anticipate an unprecedented 40% annualised decline in second-quarter GDP, with the unemployment... 6th April 2020 · 22 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Mar.) The 701,000 plunge in non-farm payrolls in March, which is already close to the worst monthly declines during the Global Financial Crisis, suggests the coronavirus pandemic started to decimate the... 3rd April 2020 · 2 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Millions of job losses coming The March employment report is more or less irrelevant at this stage because we already know that millions of workers have been laid off since the survey was conducted earlier this month. For what it... 26th March 2020 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Congress steps up to the plate The $2trn stimulus package agreed by Congress will include a permanent fiscal expansion worth up to 5% of GDP and, in conjunction with the new lending facilities announced by the Fed, could channel up... 25th March 2020 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Republican stimulus bill only a first step The Republican senators’ fiscal proposals would provide an immediate stimulus worth more than 2% of GDP and help to offset some of the damage to the economy from the coronavirus outbreak. That said... 20th March 2020 · 4 mins read
US Chart Pack Coronavirus chaos moving from markets to economy The past couple of weeks have been dominated by the financial market impact of the coronavirus pandemic, with equity markets continuing to plummet, the dollar surging and signs of strain persisting in... 19th March 2020 · 9 mins read
US Economics Update GDP to plunge in Q2, but hit can still be contained The rapid escalation of measures to contain the coronavirus outbreak suggests that the economic damage will be even larger than we anticipated only a few days ago, and we are now pencilling in a 10%... 18th March 2020 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Feb.) The February retail sales data provide further evidence that the economy was in reasonable shape before the coronavirus struck, but that won't prevent spending from falling sharply over the next few... 17th March 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update More aggressive containment measures to hit growth The direct economic impact of President Donald Trump’s European travel ban will be limited, but we now anticipate more aggressive measures to contain the pandemic over the next few days – with... 12th March 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Coronavirus outbreak to prompt fiscal response It looks increasingly likely that the escalating coronavirus outbreak will be met with a larger fiscal response, which should help to offset some of the economic damage. 10th March 2020 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Economy to take a hit despite Fed’s intervention The Fed’s emergency rate cut this week made it clear that officials are taking the economic risks posed by the coronavirus outbreak seriously. But with the number of new cases rising sharply, we don’t... 6th March 2020 · 7 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Feb.) The modest fall in the ISM manufacturing index to 50.1 in February, from 50.9, leaves the index still above the levels seen over the second half of last year. Nevertheless, the survey clearly doesn’t... 2nd March 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Grim week raises pressure on the Fed The threat of a coronavirus outbreak in the US is a significant downside risk to the economic outlook. The Fed can do nothing to halt the spread of the virus, but a further tightening of financial... 28th February 2020 · 8 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Payrolls powering ahead for now We expect February’s employment report to ease some of the recent fears about the health of the economy, with non-farm payrolls rising by 230,000 and the unemployment rate dropping back to a 50-year... 27th February 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update How low could the unemployment rate go? If the current robust trend in employment growth continues, the unemployment rate could eventually fall to its lowest level since the early 1950s. But even if it does, there are several reasons to... 25th February 2020 · 4 mins read
