US Economics Update What to make of the diverging manufacturing surveys Other surveys suggest that the ISM manufacturing index is over-playing the extent of the factory-sector slowdown. But the wider evidence suggests the outlook for manufacturers is still pretty poor. 7th October 2019 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Slowdown to continue regardless of political drama The impeachment inquiry launched by the House Democrats against President Donald Trump will dominate the headlines over the coming months. It is unlikely to have any major impact on markets or the... 27th September 2019 · 8 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods, Personal Income & Spending (Aug.) The modest rise in personal spending in August suggests that third-quarter consumption growth was weaker than we had previously anticipated, while the durable goods data indicate that business... 27th September 2019 · 2 mins read
US Economic Outlook Trade war and election add to uncertainty We expect GDP growth to slow from 2.3% this year to 1.4% in 2020, before a more favourable post-election policy mix generates a rebound to 2.0% in 2021. Under those circumstances, we anticipate one... 26th September 2019 · 22 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Gradual slowdown to continue We estimate that non-farm payrolls increased by a muted 125,000 in September, with the unemployment rate steady at 3.7%. 26th September 2019 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack Core inflation rebound complicates the Fed’s task The Fed will look through any rise in headline inflation resulting from the recent jump in crude oil prices, but the acceleration in core CPI inflation, to an 11-year high in August, is harder to... 18th September 2019 · 9 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Aug.) The stronger-than-expected 0.6% m/m rebound in industrial production in August, which was driven by manufacturing, suggests that the drag on US producers from weaker global demand may be starting to... 17th September 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) The further rise in core CPI inflation to an 11-year high of 2.4% in August won’t stop the Fed from cutting interest rates again next week, but it does provide further reason to believe that market... 12th September 2019 · 2 mins read
US Fed Watch Mid-cycle adjustment continues The Fed looks set for another 25bp rate cut at next week’s FOMC meeting. The data haven’t yet deteriorated nearly enough to justify a larger 50bp move, although we do expect a further gradual slowdown... 11th September 2019 · 8 mins read
US Economics Update Boost from lower rates starting to feed through The sharp fall in market interest rates over the past 12 months is starting to support the economy, with activity growth in rate-sensitive sectors like durables consumption and housing rebounding in... 9th September 2019 · 4 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Aug.) The fall in the ISM manufacturing index to 49.1 in August, from 51.2, left the index at its lowest level since January 2016 and points to another 25bp rate cut at the Fed’s meeting later this month. 3rd September 2019 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Still little sign of trade war drag The trade dispute with China may be escalating at a rapid pace but, despite the concerns of Fed officials, there is still little evidence that this is having a significant impact on the economy. 30th August 2019 · 8 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Surveys suggest payrolls will disappoint We estimate that employment growth slowed further in August, with non-farm payrolls rising by a below-consensus 110,000. 29th August 2019 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed still taking its cue from the bond market Fed officials signalled this week that they are content for now to take their cue from the bond market, with Chair Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech giving a strong hint that a September rate cut is... 23rd August 2019 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update Record-high dollar not a threat to the economy Despite President Donald Trump’s complaints that the strong dollar is holding back the economy, the dollar’s rate of appreciation matters more than its level and it has risen by only 3% in trade... 22nd August 2019 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack Economy shrugging off recession fears The further inversion of the yield curve – with the 10-2 year spread briefly inverting last week – has heightened fears that a recession is coming soon, but the real economy shows few signs of any... 19th August 2019 · 9 mins read
