Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Apr.) Russian activity data for April were relatively strong and suggest that a sustained recovery is taking hold in Q2 thanks to an easing of virus restrictions on services sectors and continued rebound in... 4th June 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Democrats’ spending plans hit by reality check The Senate Parliamentarian delivered some bad news to the Democrats this week – ruling that they could introduce another reconciliation to the current budget, which would allow them to pass more of... 4th June 2021 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Elevated residential investment may concern the Bank The latest data suggest residential investment, which rose to more than 10% of GDP in the first quarter, has already peaked. With the Bank of Canada meeting next week, the key issue for policymakers... 4th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB likely to look through rising inflation May’s inflation data were a little stronger than we and the consensus had expected, and inflation looks set to keep rising in the second half of the year. At next week's ECB meeting, we think that... 4th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank not marvelling at proposed Act changes While many of the changes in the new proposed Riksbank Act are benign, the Bank argues with some merit that the new legislation would make it more difficult for it to use its balance sheet during... 4th June 2021 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Households still amassing excess savings, 3rd wave fears We don’t think that consumers’ reluctance to pay for their purchases on plastic, or their still-elevated cash holdings, are signs that they will be less willing to spend in the future. Meanwhile, the... 4th June 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Apr.) Euro-zone retail sales fell back again in April to below their pre-pandemic levels. But the re-opening of non-essential retail throughout much of the euro-zone in May means they will have improved... 4th June 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Can the government spend its way to more births? While few observers believe the new three-child policy announced this week will do much to lift China’s birth rate, some are pinning higher hopes on the promise of more generous welfare benefits for... 4th June 2021 · 8 mins read
India Economics Update RBI will keep policy loose for a long time yet The Reserve Bank kept the repo rate on hold at a record low today and announced plans to ramp up government bond purchases on the secondary market, underlining its commitment to supporting the... 4th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Solid Q1 GDP more than makes up for Q2 weakness The strong rise in GDP in Q1 has prompted us to revise up our GDP forecasts for this year. And while the Victoria lockdown will weigh on consumption growth in Q2, sentiment is holding up so we expect... 4th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Industry to benefit from recovery in capital spending The slump in retail sales in April suggests that consumer spending may have fallen further during the third state of emergency. However, the medical situation is improving and the vaccination rollout... 4th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea vaccinations surge, Philippines rate cuts loom A surge in vaccinations in Korea has brightened the prospects for the consumer recovery and strengthened our view that the central bank will be able to begin tightening monetary policy this year. In... 4th June 2021 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Lockdown extensions, industrial weakness Several states have extended lockdowns this week even as new virus cases continue to plunge. With local governments taking a cautious approach to reopening, the economic recovery is likely to be more... 4th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone wage pressures will prove limited There are some signs of labour shortages developing in parts of the euro-zone, notably in hospitality. But they are likely to be short-lived and will not put sustained upward pressure on wages. And... 3rd June 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Revising up our Brazil growth forecast The latest data suggest that Brazil’s economy has been much more resilient to the latest virus waves than we had anticipated and, as a result, we’re revising up our GDP growth forecast for this year... 3rd June 2021 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil price rally continues, tourism re-opening Oil prices hit their highest level in more than two years this week and, combined with higher oil output over the rest of this year, will help to rein in large twin budget and current account deficits... 3rd June 2021 · 7 mins read
