Global Economics Update Five lessons from reopening so far In this Update we identify five things that we have learned from reopening so far. Some we anticipated, including the rapid rebound in activity once restrictions were removed and an easing of trade... 20th July 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Surge in inflation won’t be sustained Our forecast that COVID-19 won’t significantly reduce potential supply means that the economy can run a bit hotter for longer without generating the persistent rise in inflation that would require... 20th July 2021 · 26 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Not all doom and gloom Virus outbreaks are easing in much of Latin America which should support activity in the near term. And while vaccination coverage is still weak in most of the region, suggesting there is still a... 19th July 2021 · 26 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s tax reform, Chilean primary elections Proposed changes to Brazil’s income tax setup, which aim to cut corporate tax but only partly offset that with an end to exemptions and the introduction of a levy on dividends, add to the view that... 16th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s unrest: the fallout for the public finances The disruption to economic activity from the unrest and violence in South Africa, which now appears to be dissipating, will probably prove to be limited, but the impact on the public finances is... 16th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Israel’s virus resurgence, re-opening inflation in CEE The experience of Israel in recent weeks serves as a reminder that vaccine campaigns across Emerging Europe still have some way to go and that we are likely to have to learn to live with COVID long... 16th July 2021 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank’s new GDP forecasts too optimistic The Bank of Canada expects GDP to move above its pre-pandemic trend in 2023 but, given the potential for oil prices and residential investment to decline, we think its forecasts will prove too... 16th July 2021 · 5 mins read
US Economics Retail Sales (June) The 0.6% m/m gain in retail sales in June was a little stronger than we were expecting, but upward revisions to the decline in May take the gloss off that somewhat and, besides, with consumer prices... 16th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Spare capacity in labour market mutes wage pressures We now expect the euro-zone economy to grow more quickly this year than the consensus or the ECB expects. Inflation too will be higher than others are forecasting as supply shortages persist into the... 16th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Strong rebound and temporary rise in inflation The euro-zone is on the way to an almost full recovery. We expect Germany to regain its pre-pandemic level of activity later this year and the tourist-dependent southern countries to do so next year... 16th July 2021 · 33 mins read
China Economics Weekly Consumers are playing their part China’s post-lockdown recovery is a lot less patchy than generally thought. Today’s detailed GDP figures suggest that, apart from in pockets like tourism and restaurants, the retail sector is... 16th July 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics New BoE and gilt yield forecasts This week’s signs that two members of the Monetary Policy Committee have become more worried about the upside risks to inflation have led us to bring forward our forecast of when policy will be... 16th July 2021 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly South East Asia becomes virus epicentre The virus situation across South East Asia has gone from bad to worse over the past couple of weeks, with Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam all reporting a record high number of daily cases... 16th July 2021 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Delta variant taking hold in Tokyo before Olympics A delta variant-driven fifth wave has begun and cases are beginning to surge in Tokyo ahead of the Olympics opening ceremony next Friday. However, the variant is still overwhelmingly concentrated in... 16th July 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Shifting towards rate hikes Falling virus cases, strong economic recoveries and/or inflation worries prompted several more EM central banks – those of Czechia, Chile, Hungary and Mexico – to tighten monetary policy in the past... 15th July 2021 · 11 mins read
US Economics Industrial Production (Jun) The modest 0.4% m/m increase in industrial production in June was due to a weather-related spike in utilities demand and a recovery in mining output, with manufacturing output dragged down by another... 15th July 2021 · 2 mins read
