ECB Watch Preparing the ground for a super-dovish taper We think the ECB will tweak its monetary policy statement next week by pledging to maintain favourable financing conditions but not renewing its pledge to keep PEPP purchases at the recent... 3rd June 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs will climb the global league table? Emerging markets as a whole will increase their share of global GDP over the coming decades, with the largest expansions likely to come in EMs with rapid population growth (sub-Saharan Africa), those... 3rd June 2021 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (May) May’s batch of whole economy PMIs were a mixed bag suggesting that economic recoveries in the Gulf are struggling to gather momentum for the time being. But, with vaccination programmes strengthening... 3rd June 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (May) The PMIs are consistent with the euro-zone’s economic recovery gathering pace in May. Price pressures in the manufacturing sector are intensifying, but we still think that higher inflation will be... 3rd June 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Focus The fallout from the second wave India’s ferocious second wave of COVID infections is likely to have caused the economy to contract by about 5% over Q2 as a whole. The good news is that the outbreak is quickly subsiding and activity... 3rd June 2021 · 10 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (May) India’s PMI readings for May adds to evidence elsewhere that the damage from the second virus wave has not been as severe as when the pandemic first struck last year. But with restrictions likely to... 3rd June 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade & Retail Sales (Apr.) The trade surplus widened again in April but that was largely driven by higher commodity prices. Export volumes will need to recover further in the months ahead to prevent trade from being a drag on... 3rd June 2021 · 2 mins read
Energy Chart Pack Prices to be falling by end-year Cold weather in parts of the northern hemisphere helped push up the prices of coal and natural gas last month, while oil prices also rose. We still think that average energy prices will be higher this... 2nd June 2021 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi: easing of restrictions paves way for H2 recovery Saudi Arabia’s economy suffered a small downturn in Q1 and the recovery so far this quarter has been slow-going. But, with the vaccine roll out picking up pace and restrictions being relaxed, coupled... 2nd June 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Apr.) The worse-than-expected 1.3% m/m decline in Brazilian industrial production in April is likely to be followed by a partial recovery last month. That said, the latest surveys suggest that activity in... 2nd June 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (Apr.) April’s money and credit data suggests that consumers were still wary about taking on any additional debt. But even if consumers’ willingness to borrow remains limited, they have enough firepower to... 2nd June 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q1 2021) Australia's GDP surpassed its pre-virus level in Q1 but with the vaccination rollout still slow and a fresh lockdown in Melbourne, the recovery is set to slow. 2nd June 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update CEE manufacturing strengthens, but India suffers Markit’s aggregate emerging market manufacturing PMI dropped back in May as new virus waves took a toll on some countries, notably India, although they suggest that the manufacturing recovery in... 1st June 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs imply that goods shortages are pushing up prices The global manufacturing PMI held broadly steady in May as a sharp drop in India’s survey was offset by rises in other major economies whose recoveries appear to be continuing unabated. Meanwhile... 1st June 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (May) While the headline ISM manufacturing index edged up to 61.2 in May, from 60.7, the main takeaway from the release was that shortages of workers, and not just raw materials, now appear to be playing a... 1st June 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q1) The first-quarter data confirm that the economy took the second coronavirus wave in its stride but, with the preliminary estimate showing that GDP fell in April, the third wave has been much more... 1st June 2021 · 2 mins read
