Latin America Economics Weekly Fallen angel and a rising star Colombia’s second sovereign ratings downgrade to junk status was already largely priced in to local financial markets, but they could come under renewed pressure as public debt risks intensify over... 2nd July 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily US payrolls and Treasury yields Although the 10-year Treasury yield hardly moved after today’s release of the US Employment Report for June, we still expect it to resume its rise before long. 2nd July 2021 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly GDP to surpass pre-pandemic level in July The upward revision in March and smaller-than-expected fall in April mean that GDP is now on track to surpass its pre-pandemic level in July, a couple of months earlier than we previously thought... 2nd July 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (May) Exports were weaker than expected in May, but that was largely due to the ongoing global semiconductor shortage rather than weakening external demand. And with the rise in imports boding well for... 2nd July 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (May) The 1.4% m/m rise in Brazilian industrial production in May only partially reversed the falls in output in the three preceding months. And while surveys point to a stronger reading in June, the sector... 2nd July 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Surveys overstating peak price pressures At face value the business surveys published this week suggest that euro-zone inflation may soon rise to around 4%. However, we think it is unlikely to get as high as this and, even if it does, will... 2nd July 2021 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Löfven exits the stage (not pursued by a bear) The resignation of Prime Minister Stefan Löfven in Sweden has added to the period of political uncertainty in Sweden. That said, the other leading political actors would probably struggle to pass... 2nd July 2021 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Thailand’s reopening, exports soften Thailand’s tourism sector will remain heavily depressed despite this week’s reopening of Phuket to foreign tourists. Meanwhile, the latest data provide more evidence that export demand has started to... 2nd July 2021 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Taking stock of the latest fiscal package The new fiscal package announced by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman this week will only have a limited impact on both the central budget deficit and demand. It appears that the government feels it... 2nd July 2021 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Changing views on China, export demand peaking While China’s Communist Party was celebrating its achievements at its official centenary this week, a global survey revealed a sharp decline in popular enthusiasm for economic engagement with China in... 2nd July 2021 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Manufacturing bottlenecks may be easing The economic recovery stalled last quarter as the services sector was held back by virus restrictions and manufacturers suffered from chip shortages. However, with daily jabs now above the government... 2nd July 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Central Europe strengthens, but headwinds in Asia The PMIs for June show that manufacturing strengthened in most of Emerging Europe, but virus outbreaks, supply chain disruptions and a softening of demand created headwinds for industry in Asia. One... 1st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Making sense of the mixed signals behind US dollar strength The US dollar has strengthened against most currencies, despite the fall in the yield of 10-year US Treasuries. We think that the greenback will appreciate further, aided by a rise in long-term... 1st July 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs show industrial revival boosting prices further The dip in the global manufacturing PMI in June left it at a very high level, with the advanced economies leading a continued strong recovery in output. But industrial recoveries seem to have lost... 1st July 2021 · 3 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jun.) The headline ISM manufacturing index was virtually unchanged at a high level in June, but the far bigger story is the further rise in the prices paid index to 92.1 from 88.0, its highest level since... 1st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities China PMIs herald a period of slower growth China’s June survey data show softer growth in activity and supports our forecast that economic growth will slow from here, which will weigh on the prices of most commodities, especially the metals. 1st July 2021 · 2 mins read
