Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland and Hungary Q1 outperformance to continue The breakdown of Q1 GDP data showed that strong domestic demand supported expansions in Hungary and Poland, despite severe virus waves, whereas another fall in household spending held back Czechia’s... 1st June 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q1 2021) The 1.2% q/q expansion in Brazil’s GDP suggests that the economy held up well during the country’s second virus wave and more timely figures point to a rapid recovery from the more recent third wave... 1st June 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China PMIs may be as good as it gets The key takeaways from China’s May survey data are that while demand remains robust, supply shortages are leading to inventory drawdowns and price inflation. The data are broadly positive for... 1st June 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (May) The rise in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in May points to an improvement in underlying economic conditions in the sector, but we think that the recovery will be held back by key headwinds... 1st June 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland GDP (Q1 2021) & PMIs (May) Data released this morning confirmed that the Swiss economy started 2021 on the back foot following a tightening in virus-related restrictions. However, activity will have gathered pace in Q2. 1st June 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (May) The drop in India’s manufacturing PMI to a ten-month low in May suggests that activity has taken a hit from the second virus wave despite the sector being largely exempt from containment measures. And... 1st June 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (May) Unlike the official PMI survey released yesterday, the Caixin manufacturing index published today rose last month. The key takeaway is that while output edged up on the back of still strong demand... 1st June 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (May) The May PMIs softened slightly but were still mainly consistent with improvements in manufacturing sectors. Strong global demand for electronics will continue to support output over the next few... 1st June 2021 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack The three-child policy: too little, too late State media announced today that China’s family planning policy will be relaxed to allow all families to have three children, up from the current limit of two. This comes shortly after China’s once-a... 31st May 2021 · 13 mins read
India Data Response GDP (Q1) The smaller than expected rise in Indian GDP in Q1 will be followed by a significant contraction in Q2 caused by the virus surge and tightening of containment measures. While the real-time activity... 31st May 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Fiscal policy to remain loose for longer Australian Treasurer Josh Frydenberg noted in October that the Government would not pursue budget repair until the unemployment rated was comfortably below 6%. However, the unemployment rate fell much... 31st May 2021 · 10 mins read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia: economic resilience in the face of lockdown Despite the worsening virus situation and the announcement of a “total lockdown”, Malaysia’s economy is likely to hold up relatively well, as booming exports offset the hit to private consumption. We... 31st May 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Rate hikes coming in Korea as recovery gathers momentum With the economy rebounding strongly from the crisis, the Bank of Korea (BoK) is starting to shift its attention away from supporting growth and towards containing financial risks. We expect the BoK... 31st May 2021 · 10 mins read
China Data Response China Official PMIs (May) The latest surveys suggest that stronger construction activity nudged up overall growth this month and that supply shortages are pushing up prices even as final demand for manufactured goods appears... 31st May 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Apr. 2021) The sharp fall in retail sales and weaker than expected rise in industrial production in April suggests the economy was subdued even before states of emergency were declared, supporting our view that... 31st May 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Hot economy summer The re-opening plans set out in the last couple of weeks point to strong gains in GDP over the summer. Given supply constraints, we expect the increase in activity to result in higher inflation than... 28th May 2021 · 5 mins read
