US Data Response Industrial Production (May) The 0.8% m/m rise in industrial production in May, driven by a 0.9% gain in manufacturing output, suggests that some of the shortages holding back production in recent months could have eased. But... 15th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Long Run Focus Global migration to bounce back Global migration has ground to a halt over the past year or so, but we doubt that the pandemic will have any major lasting impact. Moreover, there is potential for migration to get a fresh impetus... 15th June 2021 · 21 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (May) The 1.3% decline in retail sales in May is arguably a lot better than it looks because there were big upward revisions to the April data and spending on food and drink services posted another solid... 15th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: consumer spending recovery has further to run Russian household spending looks set to rebound strongly this year as “excess” savings are drawn down, credit continues to expand, government support boosts incomes, and the labour market recovers... 15th June 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Four-week delay to Freedom Day not a big blow to the economy A four-week delay to the easing of the final domestic COVID-19 restrictions beyond 21st June is unlikely to prevent the economy from climbing back to its pre-pandemic size by the autumn. And although... 14th June 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Economic tailwinds not enough for a retail revival Upbeat economic data suggest that consumers have been flocking back to the shops since the reopening of non-essential retail in April. But this is probably not enough to turn around the fortunes of a... 14th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Apr.) Manufacturing sales volumes slumped 3.3% m/m in April, as the disruption from the global semiconductor shortage intensified. While sales volumes should gradually rise again from May, it will be some... 14th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Apr.) The further rise in euro-zone industrial production in April suggests that the sector is continuing to recover. Supply disruptions look set to drag on for a while yet, constraining the sector’s... 14th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Hawkish RBNZ will hike even earlier The RBNZ’s hawkish rate outlook has prompted us to bring forward our forecast for the first RBNZ rate hike from November to May next year. But in contrast to the RBNZ, we don’t think the pandemic will... 14th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Industrial slowdown in China a headwind for prices The prices of most industrial commodities held up fairly well this week. However, the slowdown in broad credit growth and the fall in volume terms of China’s imports of industrial commodities in May... 11th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Growth outlook improving, but ECB too optimistic The euro-zone’s growth outlook is improving thanks to the acceleration in the vaccine rollout and the re-opening of the economy. However, we were surprised at the size of the upward revision to the... 11th June 2021 · 6 mins read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Apr.) There is unlikely to be a clearer illustration of the distorting impact of base effects than the 134% y/y rise reported in Indian industrial production in April. Industrial output actually dropped in... 11th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Apr.) The surprise drop in Mexican industrial production in April may partly be payback for a strong March. And early indicators suggest that industrial activity picked up in May. Moreover, with services... 11th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Encouraging signs in Thailand The past week in Thailand has seen a number of encouraging developments, but it is too early to start raising our GDP growth forecasts. 11th June 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Inflation fears, Euro 2020 hopes The mounting evidence that price pressures are rising is a threat to our forecast that CPI inflation won’t spend a long time above the 2% target until late in 2023. The good news, though, is that if... 11th June 2021 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly US-China rivalry: industrial policy, vaccine diplomacy The US Senate took a leaf out of China’s industrial policy playbook this week by passing USICA, a bill that earmarks $190bn in federal funding for strategic sectors and bears striking similarities... 11th June 2021 · 6 mins read
