India Chart Pack Borrowing costs will remain in check India’s 10-year government bond yields have remained stable at around 6% over the past month, taking the unexpectedly large jump in inflation in May and a more hawkish turn by the US Fed in their... 23rd June 2021 · 10 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (June) The further strengthening of the euro-zone Composite PMI to a 15-year high in June underlines that the economy is rebounding quickly. Alongside this recovery, price pressures are continuing to build... 23rd June 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (Jun. 2021) Today’s flash PMIs suggest that the onus is on the services sector to drive the recovery over the coming months. The fall in the manufacturing PMI suggests that that sector won’t rebound much further... 23rd June 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor A strong Q2 in Central Europe, weakness in India The latest data suggest that the Central European and some Asian economies will probably post strong GDP growth in Q2, but virus outbreaks have weighed on recoveries in India and parts of Latin... 22nd June 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (May) Polish retail sales rebounded strongly in May as restrictions were lifted, while industry continued to expand at a solid pace. GDP looks set to return to its pre-virus level in Q2 and we expect the... 22nd June 2021 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Fed surprise points to further dollar strength The FOMC’s optimistic assessment of the outlook and the significant shift up in its “dot plot” projections has sent the US dollar soaring over the past couple of days. We have brought forward our own... 18th June 2021 · 9 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombian fiscal can-kicking, Brazil electric(ity) shock Colombia’s government recently outlined plans for more moderate fiscal austerity, but this still looks implausible given the current political backdrop. Lingering fiscal risks will probably keep local... 18th June 2021 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BoK hawkish, vaccine hopes, Singapore trade softens Policymakers in Korea have started to sound increasingly hawkish about the outlook for monetary policy, supporting our view that the Bank of Korea will begin raising interest rates before the end of... 18th June 2021 · 9 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA’s recovery, all change in Tanzania The latest hard activity figures suggest that South Africa’s economy started Q2 on a weak footing and, while there were signs of improvement in May, tighter containment measures are likely to have... 18th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly New CPI weights could keep a lid on inflation The introduction of new weights for the June CPI means that some of the item-specific price increases that we expect will not push up headline inflation by as much as we thought. Nevertheless, there... 18th June 2021 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed shifting back to risk management mode The upward revisions to the “dot plot” at this week’s FOMC meeting were hard to square with Fed officials’ continued belief that higher inflation will prove mostly transitory. Nevertheless, we also... 18th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone on the rebound Football fans will not need to be told that life is still not quite back to normal in Europe as the stadiums are less than half full and “Euro 2020” is taking place a full year late. But in many... 18th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Inflation concerns build Inflation has risen sharply across the emerging world in the last few months, prompting much more cautious words from central banks (mainly in Latin America and Emerging Europe), but we expect that EM... 18th June 2021 · 11 mins read
UK Economics Retail Sales (May) Rather than suggest the economic recovery is already spluttering, the decline in retail sales in May is probably just a result of the reopening of indoor hospitality in mid-May prompting households to... 18th June 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Economic rebound underway, capital inflows pick up Real-time data show a notable pick up in activity over the past couple of weeks, most likely due to the easing of virus restrictions in some major states. There are clearly upside risks to our view... 18th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly State of emergency declarations to be lifted The lifting of almost all states of emergency on Sunday should translate into economic activity rebounding further next week and entering Q3 on a relatively strong footing. And with daily cases... 18th June 2021 · 4 mins read
