Emerging Markets Economics Update Central Europe strengthens, but headwinds in Asia The PMIs for June show that manufacturing strengthened in most of Emerging Europe, but virus outbreaks, supply chain disruptions and a softening of demand created headwinds for industry in Asia. One... 1st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Making sense of the mixed signals behind US dollar strength The US dollar has strengthened against most currencies, despite the fall in the yield of 10-year US Treasuries. We think that the greenback will appreciate further, aided by a rise in long-term... 1st July 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs show industrial revival boosting prices further The dip in the global manufacturing PMI in June left it at a very high level, with the advanced economies leading a continued strong recovery in output. But industrial recoveries seem to have lost... 1st July 2021 · 3 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jun.) The headline ISM manufacturing index was virtually unchanged at a high level in June, but the far bigger story is the further rise in the prices paid index to 92.1 from 88.0, its highest level since... 1st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities China PMIs herald a period of slower growth China’s June survey data show softer growth in activity and supports our forecast that economic growth will slow from here, which will weigh on the prices of most commodities, especially the metals. 1st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: a strong recovery in Q2, but risks ahead Another strong batch of activity data for May suggest that Russia’s economy may have returned to just shy of its pre-pandemic level in Q2. The foundations are in place for the recovery to continue in... 1st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI edged down in June but it remained strong given the context of a severe third wave of COVID-19 and we think that the further tightening of restrictions announced on... 1st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (June) The PMIs for June suggest that manufacturing sectors strengthened in Turkey, Czechia and Poland but weakened in Russia. Meanwhile, in Czechia and Poland, supply chain disruptions intensified, and... 1st July 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economic Outlook Rebound underway, but relapse risks grow India’s ferocious second virus wave is subsiding as quickly as it emerged, enabling the recovery to get back on track. However, the rapid scaling back of containment measures that is underway... 1st July 2021 · 19 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Balance sheet reduction to precede hikes in Sweden The Riksbank was always likely to maintain the status quo this morning, but against the backdrop of recent hawkish shifts by other central banks, notably the Fed, the focus was on how its thinking had... 1st July 2021 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) The drop in India’s manufacturing PMI in June suggests that the recent plunge in new virus cases has yet to translate into a pick-up in manufacturing activity. The recovery should get back on track as... 1st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (June) After a strong end to the month, Korean export values reached a fresh all-time high in June. But with some signs external demand is levelling off and semiconductor shortages are biting, we suspect... 1st July 2021 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) The Caixin manufacturing index published today dropped back last month and adds to signs from the official PMI released yesterday that momentum in industry is waning. The surveys point to a levelling... 1st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (June) The June PMIs dropped back as virus outbreaks and supply chains issues created mounting headwinds for industry. With neither issue likely to be resolved soon, the rapid growth in industry over the... 1st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Bank of Japan Tankan (Q2 2021) The further rebound in the Q2 Tankan supports our view that the economy’s disappointing start to the year won’t prevent vaccines driving a strong rebound in the second half of the year. And firms’... 1st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Consumer confidence and the US stock market We do not think that the surge in the Conference Board’s index of consumer confidence in June is a reason to be positive about the outlook for the US stock market. 30th June 2021 · 5 mins read
