Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Jun.) June’s whole economy PMIs for the Gulf were a mixed bag, although one common thread was that weaker external demand offset a pick up in domestic demand. Strong vaccine rollouts mean that most virus... 5th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (June) The PMIs point to the euro-zone economy recovering strongly in June and provide evidence that price pressures are now spilling over into the services sector, even in the periphery. Nevertheless, we... 5th July 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (Jun.) The drop in India’s PMI readings for June should soon reverse as the second virus wave has subsided and restrictions are being eased. But a rapid reopening increases the risks of fresh outbreaks... 5th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia: Retail Sales (May 2021) Retail sales are sure to decline in June as the impact of the recent lockdowns weighs on household consumption. Even so, the rise in retail sales in May means the risks to our forecast the consumption... 5th July 2021 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap The US dollar rally may have further to run The US dollar is ending the week stronger against most currencies, although it has fallen back a little this afternoon despite the stronger-than-expected non-farm payrolls report. While that reaction... 2nd July 2021 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Fallen angel and a rising star Colombia’s second sovereign ratings downgrade to junk status was already largely priced in to local financial markets, but they could come under renewed pressure as public debt risks intensify over... 2nd July 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily US payrolls and Treasury yields Although the 10-year Treasury yield hardly moved after today’s release of the US Employment Report for June, we still expect it to resume its rise before long. 2nd July 2021 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly GDP to surpass pre-pandemic level in July The upward revision in March and smaller-than-expected fall in April mean that GDP is now on track to surpass its pre-pandemic level in July, a couple of months earlier than we previously thought... 2nd July 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (May) Exports were weaker than expected in May, but that was largely due to the ongoing global semiconductor shortage rather than weakening external demand. And with the rise in imports boding well for... 2nd July 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (May) The 1.4% m/m rise in Brazilian industrial production in May only partially reversed the falls in output in the three preceding months. And while surveys point to a stronger reading in June, the sector... 2nd July 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Surveys overstating peak price pressures At face value the business surveys published this week suggest that euro-zone inflation may soon rise to around 4%. However, we think it is unlikely to get as high as this and, even if it does, will... 2nd July 2021 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Löfven exits the stage (not pursued by a bear) The resignation of Prime Minister Stefan Löfven in Sweden has added to the period of political uncertainty in Sweden. That said, the other leading political actors would probably struggle to pass... 2nd July 2021 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Thailand’s reopening, exports soften Thailand’s tourism sector will remain heavily depressed despite this week’s reopening of Phuket to foreign tourists. Meanwhile, the latest data provide more evidence that export demand has started to... 2nd July 2021 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Taking stock of the latest fiscal package The new fiscal package announced by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman this week will only have a limited impact on both the central budget deficit and demand. It appears that the government feels it... 2nd July 2021 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Changing views on China, export demand peaking While China’s Communist Party was celebrating its achievements at its official centenary this week, a global survey revealed a sharp decline in popular enthusiasm for economic engagement with China in... 2nd July 2021 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Manufacturing bottlenecks may be easing The economic recovery stalled last quarter as the services sector was held back by virus restrictions and manufacturers suffered from chip shortages. However, with daily jabs now above the government... 2nd July 2021 · 5 mins read
