Japan Economics Weekly Delta variant taking hold in Tokyo before Olympics A delta variant-driven fifth wave has begun and cases are beginning to surge in Tokyo ahead of the Olympics opening ceremony next Friday. However, the variant is still overwhelmingly concentrated in... 16th July 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Shifting towards rate hikes Falling virus cases, strong economic recoveries and/or inflation worries prompted several more EM central banks – those of Czechia, Chile, Hungary and Mexico – to tighten monetary policy in the past... 15th July 2021 · 11 mins read
US Economics Industrial Production (Jun) The modest 0.4% m/m increase in industrial production in June was due to a weather-related spike in utilities demand and a recovery in mining output, with manufacturing output dragged down by another... 15th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Saudi-UAE oil deal, Saudi fuel cap, Moroccan reforms Reports suggest that Saudi Arabia and the UAE have seemingly reached an agreement over oil output quotas and the resulting rise in production will boost economic recoveries across the Gulf over the... 15th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics New guidance will set the bar higher for rate hikes The ECB will set out next week what its new strategy implies for its monetary policy. Having nudged up the target to a symmetrical 2% and stressed that it will tolerate some overshooting, the... 15th July 2021 · 8 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Consumption to drive recovery The lifting of restrictions and ongoing policy support should translate into a sustained period of above-potential GDP growth, driven by consumption and business investment. We expect GDP growth of 6... 15th July 2021 · 19 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Broad recovery continues, but Delta poses some risks Global economic activity looks to have perked up recently, despite a slowdown in China and a slightly weaker re-opening bounce in the US than most had anticipated. The hard economic data have revealed... 15th July 2021 · 12 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Central banks to tighten as bust turns to boom Sydney’s lockdown will keep a lid on Australia’s recovery for now, but booming housing markets should support consumer spending and dwellings investment in both countries. We don’t expect labour... 15th July 2021 · 24 mins read
China Data Response China GDP (Q2), Activity & Spending (Jun.) China’s GDP growth dropped back in y/y terms last quarter as the base for comparison became less flattering. In q/q terms, output rose at a slightly faster pace than in Q1, when a flare-up in virus... 15th July 2021 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Manufacturing Sales (May) Manufacturing sales fell again in May as the global supply shortages continued to take their toll. While those shortages should ease in the second half of the year, the rebound in production is set to... 14th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: further weakness to follow mixed May activity data South Africa’s hard activity data for May painted a picture of a bumpy recovery in Q2, as retail sales grew strongly but industrial sectors showed signs of weakness. With tighter virus containment... 14th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Delta variant is a much bigger threat to EMs than DMs The apparent success of vaccines at preventing severe illness and death from the Delta coronavirus variant should mean that it does not pose a major threat to recoveries in most advanced economies... 14th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Euro-zone Industrial Production (May) The euro-zone’s industrial sector took a step backwards in May as the global semiconductor shortage hit auto production. Supply disruptions look set to drag on for a while yet, constraining the sector... 14th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Net capital outflows from emerging markets have picked up over the past month following the Fed’s more hawkish turn at the FOMC meeting in early June. Outflows may intensify over the coming months... 14th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Long Run Update The difficulties of capturing productivity improvements Recent methodological changes by the UK statistics body highlight the difficulties of capturing productivity improvements in official economic data. Although the revisions will make only a small... 14th July 2021 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jun.) Wholesale price inflation dropped for the first time in five months in June and is set to fall sharply over the coming months as commodity prices drop back. With headline CPI inflation also likely to... 14th July 2021 · 2 mins read
