US Data Response GDP (Q3) GDP growth slowed to only 2.0% annualised in the third quarter, as the Delta wave of infections, the waning fiscal stimulus and shortages, particularly of motor vehicles, triggered a marked slowdown... 28th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ to stay the course, Qatari banks, Saudi’s new NIF We think OPEC+ will stick to its guns next week and raise output quotas by 400,000bpd, but if it bows to pressure to move more quickly the Gulf economies would stand to benefit most. Elsewhere... 28th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (October) The EC Economic Sentiment Indicator for October increased a touch, but the details show that expectations for production declined slightly, probably due to the worsening supply chain problems. So... 28th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Oct.) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for October showed that sentiment in industry and services softened across most of Central and Eastern Europe at the start of Q4. With rising virus cases adding... 28th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Hope on vaccines, but still a long way to go COVID-19 vaccine coverage remains pitifully low across much of Sub-Saharan Africa, with less than 10% of populations having received at least a first dose in most countries. But there are signs that... 28th October 2021 · 11 mins read
Global Trade Monitor Supply problems to continue constraining world trade The evidence keeps mounting that world trade is unable to rise any further from its elevated level. And industrial supply and global logistics are likely to continue failing to keep up with demand in... 28th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden GDP Indicator (Q3) & ETI (Oct.) The stronger-than-expected growth in Swedish GDP in Q3 shows that the recovery continued apace over the summer, lifting activity even further above its pre-pandemic level. But while business... 28th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Retail Sales (Sep. 2021) While retail sales rebounded in September as the Delta wave ebbed, supply shortages in the car industry may prevent a full recovery until year-end. 28th October 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Budget October 2021 – OBR delivers for Sunak This Budget was perhaps more notable for what the Chancellor didn’t do rather than what he did. The OBR handed Rishi Sunak a significant upgrade to its forecasts for the public finances but, while the... 27th October 2021 · 14 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack What do higher oil prices mean outside of the Gulf? The Gulf countries will be among the biggest winners globally from the recent rally in energy prices but most other parts of the Middle East and North Africa are net oil importers and are likely to be... 27th October 2021 · 10 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Headwinds beyond vaccine woes intensifying Extremely low vaccine coverage continues to cast a dark cloud over recovery prospects in Sub-Saharan Africa and this will be compounded by deteriorations in the terms of trade and tighter fiscal... 27th October 2021 · 22 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Sep.) The weakness in headline durable goods orders last month was driven by another fall in transport orders, which mostly reflects worsening supply problems in the auto market. The strong increase in... 27th October 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Autumn Budget 2021 Checklist We are resending this Budget Checklist so clients can have it to hand ahead of today’s Budget. It is designed to help clients keep track of the key economic and public finances forecasts announced... 27th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Chart Pack South East Asia bouncing back The near-term outlook for South East Asia has improved dramatically over the past month or so. Daily cases of COVID-19 have collapsed and are now less than one-third of the level they were at in... 27th October 2021 · 15 mins read
Europe Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) Money growth has slowed this year and is likely to decline further next year. Meanwhile, although the pandemic has resulted in a huge increase in the money supply, we do not think this will cause... 27th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Fiscal risks in the spotlight The growing likelihood that Brazil’s government will circumvent its spending cap adds to broader signs that austerity is becoming politically difficult to implement across the region. For instance... 26th October 2021 · 10 mins read
