FX Markets Weekly Wrap The USD (and FOMC) is unlikely to change course The US dollar looks set to eke out small gains against most currencies this week as US bond yields rose further and equities whipsawed. While the net effect of the FOMC’s policy announcement and today... 6th May 2022 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Cracks in housing market risk turning into chasms The slump in home sales in April, combined with the unexpected fall in hours worked, point to downside risks to GDP last month. While hours worked are set to rebound in May, there is likely to be much... 6th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Inflation alarm bells, Amlo seeks price freeze The rise in inflation to multi-decade highs across much of the region in April is clearly worrying policymakers and, this week, Mexico’s government became the latest to announce measures to cushion... 6th May 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Is the ruble now too strong? EU oil embargo gets close The Russian ruble continued its remarkable rally this week, rising to a two-year high of 66/$ but we think it may now be too strong and that the Russian authorities will soon ease some restrictions on... 6th May 2022 · 7 mins read
Long Run Update Which COVID-behavioural changes are permanent? We argued two years ago that the pandemic would accelerate changes that were already underway rather than trigger behavioural changes out of the blue. Now that most restrictions have been removed in... 6th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA recovery falters, wage talks, Kenya’s soft start to 2022 Recent flooding in a key province and warnings this week that power cuts could reach unprecedented levels are the latest in a long list of blows to South Africa’s economy that have repeatedly stifled... 6th May 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weakening economy won’t do the MPC’s job The Bank of England’s prediction that the economy is on the brink of recession grabbed the headlines this week, but we suspect its GDP forecast will prove too downbeat. That’s not to say the risk of... 6th May 2022 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Schlegel gets a pay rise; new split at the Riksbank The fact that the successor to Fritz Zurbrügg as Vice-Chair of the SNB’s Governing Board, Martin Schlegel, is an SNB stalwart means the looming changes at the top are unlikely to change the decision... 6th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What a strong dollar means for EMs While a stronger dollar is generally regarded as a headwind for EMs, we think it will only be a minor one for most major EMs, particularly compared with the headwinds from weakness in China... 6th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Weakness of activity won’t deter the ECB A rate hike by the ECB in July, or possibly even in June, looks increasingly likely. But policymakers seem to be in no hurry to announce a new tool to keep sovereign bond spreads contained. Meanwhile... 6th May 2022 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Tech sector reprieve, cyclical trough? Officials are turning less hostile toward tech firms. But the economic drag from the regulatory crackdown, which we think has knocked 0.3%-pts off of annual GDP growth, is unlikely to dissipate... 6th May 2022 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BSP to tighten gradually, Philippines election Despite the sharp jump in inflation in the Philippines last month, the central bank looks set to raise interest rates only gradually. Meanwhile, the key event of the coming week is the presidential... 6th May 2022 · 8 mins read
India Economics Weekly Power shortages, new repo rate forecasts The ongoing heatwave and related power shortages in India pose a downside risk to growth, but we think the biggest risk is the upside one to inflation. Indeed, rising price pressures prompted the RBI... 6th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (March) The slump in output in March shows that the war in Ukraine is hitting manufacturers hard even before a ban on Russian energy imports has taken effect and before the ECB has raised interest rates. We... 6th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly 2.5% inflation, border to reopen to tourists in June Despite a huge pot of excess savings accumulated over the past couple of years, today’s 2.5% inflation print for April is likely to slow the post-Omicron recovery by spooking consumers not used to... 6th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Your questions on the global economic outlook We held a Drop-In yesterday to discuss our Q2 Global Economic Outlook and the forecasts within it (see an on-demand recording here). This Update answers several of the excellent questions that we... 5th May 2022 · 4 mins read
