Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Oct.) October’s batch of whole economy PMIs showed that recoveries in non-hydrocarbon sectors in the Gulf strengthened, particularly in the UAE as the Expo got underway this month. But price pressures are... 3rd November 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Virus caution by the elderly not a big downside risk Continued caution by the elderly is a downside risk to our upbeat forecasts for private consumption, but we’re already assuming that households won’t return to their old ways anytime soon. 3rd November 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (Oct.) The strength in India’s PMI surveys for October suggests that economic activity continued to hold up well last month. But we still think that the recovery is set to enter a slower phase, and India’s... 3rd November 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Still no sign of supply problems letting up The October manufacturing PMIs gave us more of the same – evidence that supply disruptions are getting worse, industrial output growth is weakening, and price pressures are intensifying. This fits... 2nd November 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Supply disruptions weigh on EM industry October’s PMIs suggest that manufacturing sectors in Southeast Asia are recovering from recent Covid waves, but supply constraints are taking their toll on industry in China, Brazil and parts of... 2nd November 2021 · 2 mins read
Long Run Update COP26 unlikely to alter economic outlook The UN’s annual climate change conference, COP26, has the potential to be an important milestone but it is just one step along the path required to limit global warming. Accordingly, it will not on... 2nd November 2021 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Wage growth is stronger than it seems The “fixed-weight” average hourly earnings series that the Bank of Canada is following appear to be understating wage growth, but should provide a more accurate picture over the rest of the year. 2nd November 2021 · 4 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI dropped back last month, pointing to a further slowdown in the sector’s already weak recovery. Persistent headwinds will probably keep manufacturing activity subdued. 2nd November 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Will Asian exporters continue to defy gravity? Asian exports have continued to grow rapidly despite the recent disruption stemming from lockdowns in South East Asia. A huge backlog of orders and low inventory levels in advanced economies mean that... 2nd November 2021 · 3 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct.) While the headline ISM manufacturing index fell only slightly to 60.8 in October, from 61.1, the survey details add to the evidence that shortages are constraining activity and pushing up prices. 1st November 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q3 Preliminary) Hong Kong’s economy largely treaded water last quarter, with weaker exports and investment meaning the rebound from Q2’s downturn was much more tepid than expected. The pace of recovery is likely to... 1st November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) The manufacturing PMIs in October showed that supply disruptions took a greater toll at the start of Q4, with industrial production growth in Turkey slowing and Czech industry likely to have... 1st November 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) The jump in India’s manufacturing PMI in October paints an upbeat picture of the health of manufacturing, but the recovery remains fragile against the backdrop of persistent global supply shortages... 1st November 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China PMIs (Oct.) The manufacturing PMIs diverged again this month. But the big picture is that power rationing and supply shortages continued to constrain output and push up prices. 1st November 2021 · 4 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) While October Manufacturing PMIs point to a strong rise in manufacturing output, industry is likely to be working through huge backlogs of orders for many months to come and resulting supply shortages... 1st November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Sep.) Russia’s economy enjoyed a strong end to Q3, but the country’s severe COVID-19 outbreak has clouded the outlook more recently and is likely to cause growth to soften in Q4. 29th October 2021 · 2 mins read
