India Economics Weekly Kerala concerns, Sensex surge Headline numbers suggest that the recent virus outbreak in Kerala has been brought under control, but that seems to be in large part a reflection of a sharp fall in testing. And with vaccination... 27th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Delta may soon peak, Kishida seeks to replace Suga The government this week expanded state of emergencies to nearly all prefectures and consumers are responding to the surge in virus cases with renewed caution. We’ve therefore pencilled in a renewed... 27th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the S&P 500’s soaring valuation The S&P 500 remains within a whisker of its all-time high, despite faltering a bit today. Although much of its gain since spring 2020 has reflected growth in earnings, its valuation has also risen... 26th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf countries move to lift containment measures High levels of vaccine coverage have paved the way for policymakers across the Gulf to lift measures to contain COVID-19 over the past month or so. The UAE remains ahead of the pack in the vaccine... 26th August 2021 · 14 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Inflation pressures mount as activity rebounds Recoveries across Emerging Europe accelerated in Q2 as the easing of virus restrictions pushed GDP to, or above, pre-pandemic levels in most countries and we think this momentum will continue in Q3... 26th August 2021 · 16 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: could a savings drawdown lift the recovery? We estimate that Brazilian households have ‘excess’ savings worth around 6% of GDP resulting from the pandemic. These should help to cushion consumer spending in the face of headwinds caused by rising... 26th August 2021 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Continued strong payroll gains in August We expect a 750,000 gain in payrolls in August which, although slightly weaker than the gains seen in June and July, would be enough to push the unemployment rate down to 5.1% and would probably count... 26th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s COVID outbreak, Tunisia’s president tightens grip Fears are growing that Egypt is on the cusp of a fresh wave of COVID-19 driven by the Delta variant, but past experience suggests that restrictions will remain light touch and there is growing hope... 26th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Delta not clipping the wings of RBNZ hawks yet New Zealand has entered a draconian lockdown and new infections continue to rise. The lockdown prompted the RBNZ to refrain from hiking interest rates at its August meeting and financial markets were... 26th August 2021 · 11 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q2) The pick-up in Nigeria’s headline GDP growth to 5.0% y/y in Q2 was largely reflective of favourable base effects created by the sharp downturn a year ago. It appears that the underlying pace of growth... 26th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Private Capex Survey (Q2) We estimate that private investment rose by 1.5% q/q in Q2 and firms’ expectations of future capital expenditure suggest firms are still keen to invest when lockdowns ease. 26th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Consumer spending to fall across Q3 The latest high-frequency data point to the relentless surge in new coronavirus cases starting to weigh heavily on consumer activity this month. And with full-blown emergency declarations to be... 26th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Investment to make sizeable contribution to growth Business surveys suggest that global supply problems are becoming a drag on euro-zone investment, but these problems should fade going into 2022. As long as the Delta variant doesn’t halt the economic... 25th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Trade Monitor Plateau in world trade and supply bottlenecks to persist The latest data show that world trade has flattened off at a high level. While timely indicators suggest that trade is unlikely to reaccelerate, it doesn’t look set to weaken much either. Consequently... 25th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: bigger GDP doesn’t ease economic woes Revisions to South Africa’s historic GDP data show that the economy is more than 10% larger than previously estimated. But this doesn’t alter the headwinds facing the economic recovery and, while the... 25th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Em. Europe & Lat Am leading the recovery in Q3 Most economies in Emerging Europe and Latin America look set for a strong third quarter and, while the near-term outlook for Southeast Asian economies remains challenging, high-frequency mobility... 25th August 2021 · 3 mins read
