Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (July) The PMIs for July suggest that supply chain disruptions weighed on output in Czechia and Poland and continued to put upward pressure on prices. Meanwhile, the releases suggest that manufacturing... 2nd August 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Switzerland CPI & Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.) While inflation in Switzerland is likely to rise further in the coming months, the anticipated bout of re-opening inflation may have already passed, and the SNB will not be fazed. 2nd August 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) The sharp rebound in India’s manufacturing PMI in July adds to evidence that the economy has been staging a strong recovery ever since the second virus wave receded. But with vaccine coverage still... 2nd August 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China PMIs (Jul.) The latest surveys suggest that the pace of growth slowed more than expected last month. Supply bottlenecks remain a constraint. But the PMIs suggest demand is cooling too, taking the heat out of... 2nd August 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (July) The July PMIs for Emerging Asia point to sharp contractions in manufacturing in those places worst affected by the virus. With outbreaks likely to remain a key headwind for months to come, the rapid... 2nd August 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Recovery to slow from here The slightly disappointing second-quarter GDP data released this week and another dovish press conference from Chair Jerome Powell strengthen our belief that the Fed is unlikely to begin tapering its... 30th July 2021 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Worrying signs from Castillo, regional re-opening The first steps from Peru’s newly-inaugurated President, Pedro Castillo, provide plenty of worrying signs for investors and suggest that local financial markets will remain on the back foot. Meanwhile... 30th July 2021 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Iceland’s shorter working week not a holy grail The success of reduced working hour trials in Iceland was largely founded on adopting better working practices which, if embraced elsewhere, might offer no-cost ways of achieving better work-life... 30th July 2021 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa’s fiscal tightrope, FX reshuffling in Nigeria "Post-unrest relief measures announced by the South African authorities will probably go some way to offset the blow to the economy. The government expects to be able to stick to its fiscal... 30th July 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly At risk of stalling, but Q3 may make up for Q2’s weakness This week brought further signs that the “pingdemic” weighed on economic activity and evidence that in June, consumers amassed excess savings at a faster rate than in May. As a result, there’s clearly... 30th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (May) The monthly data suggest that GDP expanded by 2.5% annualised in the second quarter, despite the lockdowns in April and May, and the likely 0.7% m/m gain in June will provide a strong hand-over to the... 30th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Clouds over Asia, bright spots in EM Europe & Lat Am While the pandemic continues to hold back recoveries in Southeast Asia, the near-term outlook appears brighter in Emerging Europe and Latin America. However, low vaccine coverage in the latter means... 30th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Reopening effects to persist in Q3 The surge in German inflation, to 3.8% on the national CPI measure in July, may have got some pulses racing in Frankfurt, but core euro-zone inflation remains very low and we continue to think that... 30th July 2021 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly KOF coming back earth; Sweden powering ahead The latest fall in the KOF Economic Barometer suggests that the tailwinds that have driven the rebound in the Swiss industrial sector are fading. But with the hospitality sector going from strength to... 30th July 2021 · 5 mins read
India Data Response Core Infrastructure Industries (Jun.) India’s core infrastructure industries index rebounded in seasonally-adjusted m/m terms in June, suggesting that an industrial recovery is well underway. 30th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q2 Prov.) The re-opening of Mexico’s economy caused GDP growth to accelerate to 1.5% q/q in Q2, and we suspect that this preliminary figure will be revised up. But with new virus cases rising sharply, the... 30th July 2021 · 2 mins read
