Europe Economics German Ifo Survey (July) The small decline in the Ifo Business Climate Index in July suggests that the rebound in Germany may be losing some momentum. But Germany will still post very rapid GDP growth in both Q2 and Q3 and... 26th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (Jul. 2021) Today’s flash PMI suggests that the services sector was hit by Tokyo’s state of emergency but we still expect activity to recover towards the end of this quarter. 26th July 2021 · 2 mins read
FX The FOMC announcement may extend the dollar rally While the US dollar has fallen back a little against most currencies in the second half of the week as the sharp sell-off in risky assets and currencies on Monday was reversed, it looks set to end the... 23rd July 2021 · 9 mins read
Global Economics The global implications of a slowdown in China The slowdown that we anticipate in China over the next 6-12 months is best viewed as a return to normality following a period of above-trend output. While it will be a headwind to growth in some... 23rd July 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Delta fears, Hungary-EU spat, more NBU tightening Concerns have grown over the past week about the spread of the Delta variant of COVID-19 but high vaccine coverage across much of the region has reduced the risk that policymakers will be forced to... 23rd July 2021 · 7 mins read
China Economics Coming down to earth China’s economy has been defying gravity thanks to elevated global demand but this support may now be fading. Meanwhile, last year’s policy easing has been fully reversed. An abrupt slowdown is not... 23rd July 2021 · 22 mins read
Canada Economics Drop in yields unlikely to do much for housing As the recent decline in bond yields have been most pronounced at the long end of the curve, it is unlikely to trigger much of a renewed fall in five-year mortgages rates. We expect mortgage rates to... 23rd July 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Limited signs of price pressures fading in the PMIs The overarching message from today’s batch of flash PMIs was that higher inflation isn’t going away anytime soon in major advanced economies. Some of the inflation indicators edged away from their... 23rd July 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico’s Delta despairs, Bolsonaro’s giveaways The third virus wave currently underway in Mexico, driven by the contagious Delta variant, will probably weigh on activity this quarter. But, for now, we don’t think that it will derail the economic... 23rd July 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Negative rates and QE forever? The change in the ECB’s policy guidance, announced yesterday, strengthens our view that the Bank will leave its deposit rate unchanged at -0.5% until beyond 2025 and will continue with large-scale... 23rd July 2021 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Retail Sales (May) Retail sales fell again in May but the preliminary estimate suggests they rebounded strongly in June as non-essential stores re-opened. Consumers may transition away from spending on goods as the... 23rd July 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Vietnam-US tensions ease, new GDP forecasts Surging virus cases have cast a shadow over Vietnam’s near-term outlook, but there has also been some good news in the form of Monday’s announcement of a resolution to the long-running currency... 23rd July 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Hit to GDP from pingdemic not huge, but unhelpful We estimate that the “pingdemic”, which has contributed to 1.1 million people self-isolating in the week ending 14 th July, could reduce monthly GDP by 0.5-1.0% and is surely exacerbating the current... 23rd July 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Summer Olympics not N&S’s comparative advantage Switzerland and the Nordic countries don’t tend to excel in the summer Olympics but they dominate the winter games when their comparative advantage of lots of snow and mountains becomes apparent. Next... 23rd July 2021 · 5 mins read
Long Run Update The implications of the pandemic decline in births Birth rates have fallen in several advanced economies during the pandemic. Although we think that fertility rates will bounce back and there won’t be material long-term impacts, this presents a small... 23rd July 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Economics IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Jul.) The second consecutive decline in the flash composite PMI in July came as no surprise to us as we expected the pace of the economic recovery to naturally slow after the big gains following the... 23rd July 2021 · 3 mins read
