Emerging Europe Chart Pack Recovery takes hold and inflation pressures build Economic activity across Emerging Europe is rebounding strongly now that virus waves have passed and restrictions have been lifted. The recovery in Q2 looks to have been strongest in Russia, Israel... 24th June 2021 · 15 mins read
Capital Daily BoE policy may ultimately lead to a steeper UK yield curve The yield of 10-year Gilts fell after the Bank of England kept its policy settings and forward guidance unchanged at its meeting today. However, we suspect that if the Bank continues to look through... 24th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina’s NT outlook not as dire as many think Argentina’s GDP expanded by a stronger-than-expected 2.6% q/q in Q1 and, while the recent third virus wave has dragged down activity in Q2, we are sticking with our above-consensus forecast of 8%... 24th June 2021 · 4 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (May) The 2.3% m/m rise in durable goods orders last month was driven by another big increase in commercial aircraft orders reflecting the recovery in air travel, with underlying orders weaker than expected... 24th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Third wave fears grow Worries about a third wave of COVID-19 in the region have intensified in the past month and the tightening of lockdown measures in some countries – most notably South Africa – will weigh on recoveries... 24th June 2021 · 13 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports may be peaking EM goods exports have surged in Q2. There are some early indications that EM exports will now come off their record highs, but they are still likely to stay at elevated levels throughout the rest of... 24th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Higher oil prices to help narrow twin deficits The price of oil has continued to rise and will help to improve balance sheets in the Gulf. With oil prices at $75pb, all Gulf economies with the exceptions of Bahrain and Oman are likely to be... 24th June 2021 · 15 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: rate cuts on the horizon The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) left its main policy rate on hold at 2.00% today, but with inflation fears receding, more rate cuts to support the beleaguered economy are only a few months... 24th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (June) The German football team only narrowly scraped through the group stage of the Euros yesterday, but the news about the economy continues to be much more emphatic. 24th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Lasting decline in saving rate would be an upside risk The surge in consumption in Q1 resulted in the savings rate falling to a 15-year low. While we expect households to respond to falling house prices with higher savings, the rebound in GDP could be... 24th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Four key takeaways from Suga’s first big-boned policy PM Suga unveiled his administration’s first mid- to long-term growth strategy – known as the “big-boned policy” – on Friday. While most themes have been carried over from the Abe administration, PM... 24th June 2021 · 4 mins read
China Activity Monitor Still strong but probably close to a cyclical peak Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that output remained strong in May but didn’t rise much further, with slowing credit growth weighing on construction and China’s pandemic-induced export boom... 23rd June 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Assessing the post-FOMC moves in bond and stock markets As the dust finally begins to settle following last week’s FOMC announcement, we think a couple of significant shifts in market pricing since then merit a closer look. 23rd June 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Will vaccine hesitancy become a problem in EMs? For EMs, vaccine supply appears to be by far the biggest constraint on immunisation campaigns; vaccine hesitancy will probably rear its head at a much more advanced stage of rollout in most countries... 23rd June 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Apr.) The recent lockdowns caused retail sales to plunge by 5.7% in April and the preliminary estimate implies they fell sharply in May as well. The outlook is much brighter, with the record level of... 23rd June 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Jun.) The fall in the flash composite PMI from a record high of 62.9 in May to 61.7 in June indicates that the pace of the recovery may have peaked. That suggests the monthly rises in GDP will ease back... 23rd June 2021 · 3 mins read
