Europe Economics Reopening effects to persist in Q3 The surge in German inflation, to 3.8% on the national CPI measure in July, may have got some pulses racing in Frankfurt, but core euro-zone inflation remains very low and we continue to think that... 30th July 2021 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly KOF coming back earth; Sweden powering ahead The latest fall in the KOF Economic Barometer suggests that the tailwinds that have driven the rebound in the Swiss industrial sector are fading. But with the hospitality sector going from strength to... 30th July 2021 · 5 mins read
India Data Response Core Infrastructure Industries (Jun.) India’s core infrastructure industries index rebounded in seasonally-adjusted m/m terms in June, suggesting that an industrial recovery is well underway. 30th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q2 Prov.) The re-opening of Mexico’s economy caused GDP growth to accelerate to 1.5% q/q in Q2, and we suspect that this preliminary figure will be revised up. But with new virus cases rising sharply, the... 30th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Euro-zone GDP and Employment (Q2) After increasing more than expected in Q2, thanks to strong growth in the southern economies, euro-zone GDP should expand rapidly again in Q3 as core economies close in on their pandemic levels. China... 30th July 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q2 Preliminary) Hong Kong’s economy contracted last quarter as exports moderated after an exceptional Q1. The path of output is likely to remain subdued until Hong Kong’s borders reopen. 30th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Taiwan GDP (Q2, provisional) Taiwan’s economy only contracted slightly last quarter despite a major COVID outbreak, as strong exports cushioned the blow. Large backlogs of orders should keep exports elevated which, alongside a... 30th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Vaccination threshold may be hit in four months With new virus cases hitting fresh highs this week, Sydney’s lockdown has been extended until end-August and looks set to last for months given the high transmissibility of the Delta variant... 30th July 2021 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech GDP (Q2 2021) The disappointing 0.6% q/q expansion of Czech GDP in Q2 suggests that industry may have fared worse than expected as input shortages took a greater toll on output. With virus restrictions easing... 30th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Another disappointing quarter Strong activity data for June confirm that the economy entered Q3 on a relatively strong footing. But while vaccinations are limiting the number of severe cases and deaths, daily coronavirus cases... 30th July 2021 · 5 mins read
China Chart Pack Investors refocus on long-term concerns Questions about the strength of China’s post-lockdown rebound have become louder since the People’s Bank cut the required reserve ratio three weeks ago. But the trigger for this week’s sharp equity... 30th July 2021 · 13 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Activity to rebound in fourth quarter With the Sydney lockdown set to extend into the fourth quarter, we’ve lowered our Q3 GDP forecast further. However, we still think that the economy will bounce back in Q4 as vaccine hesitancy is... 30th July 2021 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Virus now hitting industry in Malaysia and Vietnam Industry in Malaysia and Vietnam was already feeling a pinch from restrictions and worker shortages brought about by a jump in COVID-19 cases, but the situation is deteriorating fast. Data early next... 30th July 2021 · 9 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market, Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Jun. 21) Retail sales, industrial production and employment all rebounded strongly in June, pointing to a sizeable recovery in activity in between the Alpha- and Delta-driven coronavirus waves. That supports... 30th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Bond market pessimism looks overdone The US yield curve continues to send a gloomy message, which we think is hard to square with the economic outlook. 29th July 2021 · 6 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Delta threat building The highly contagious Delta variant of COVID-19 seems to be dominant now across much of Sub-Saharan Africa and is driving new waves in many of the large economies. South Africa appears to be over the... 29th July 2021 · 10 mins read
