Weaker demand starting to weigh on trade

While official data showed that world trade held up well in February, timelier national indicators suggest that exports from some Asian economies have fallen since then. This slowdown seems to reflect weaker global consumer demand, which we expect to persist. So far, there is only limited evidence that pandemic-related disruption to supply from lockdowns in China is having an adverse impact, but there is clearly a risk that this adds to headwinds to global trade in the months ahead.