Canada Economics Focus Tackling climate change will be costlier than elsewhere Over the next few years, there is potential for increased “green” investment to more than offset the negative economic effects of measures such as further carbon tax hikes. But given the economy’s... 26th May 2021 · 16 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tourism set for uneven recovery Strong vaccine rollouts in the Gulf and Morocco have allowed for an easing of travel-related restrictions but there is still a long way to go and recoveries in tourism sectors are likely to be slow... 26th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Trade Monitor Higher costs and delays are not damaging demand The further rise in real trade in March suggests that external demand continued to recover, even as capacity constraints related to shipping were intensifying. And while shipping costs have risen and... 26th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We think the euro’s recent strength will prove to be transitory While recent strong data confirm that the economic recovery in the eurozone is underway, we continue to think the euro will weaken against the US dollar this year. 25th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q1, Revised) Revised Q1 GDP data show that Singapore’s economy grew more strongly than first thought at the start of 2021. While a resurgence in virus cases is likely to drag on GDP this quarter, this headwind... 25th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s recovery to remain stuck in first gear The pick-up in Nigeria’s GDP growth in Q1 was driven in large part by the oil sector and rising oil output will support a further acceleration in growth over the coming quarters. But FX restrictions... 24th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Apr.) The m/m fall in industrial production and retail sales in Poland in April confirmed that the country’s third virus wave caused the economy to start the quarter on a soft note. But with new virus cases... 24th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: supply is struggling to keep up with demand The flash PMIs for May suggest that the recovery is well underway in those economies that are now on top of the virus. However, supply is still struggling to keep up with surging demand. And as well... 21st May 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) After reaching a record high in March, the preliminary estimate suggests that the lockdowns caused retail sales to slump in April. There is likely to be only a small rise this month given stores have... 21st May 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (May) Another rise in the flash composite PMI from 60.7 in April to a record high of 62.0 in May points to the economic recovery shifting through the gears and picking up speed. That suggests the pace of... 21st May 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Vaccine surge, commodity price curbs After a slow start, China’s COVID-19 vaccine rollout is now one of the world’s fastest and is currently responsible for over half of daily inoculations globally. At this pace, China could catch up... 21st May 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (May) May’s rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI reflects the further lifting of restrictions in many parts of the region and suggests the economic recovery is now fully underway. Supply chain difficulties... 21st May 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan: capacity constraints and global chip supply Taiwan’s economy is being buffeted by several apparently unconnected shocks – a drought, power outages and an outbreak of COVID-19. But they are all linked to severe capacity shortages resulting from... 21st May 2021 · 3 mins read
Long Run Update Scar free? The implications of a full economic recovery While the consensus has become more optimistic about the near-term recovery, most analysts – and the majority of central banks – still believe that the pandemic will leave a legacy of lower global... 21st May 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Retail Sales (Apr.) The surge in retail sales volumes in April shows that households flooded back to the shops once they reopened in the middle of the month and suggests there is even some upside risk to our forecast... 21st May 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Disappointing Q1, Moderna & AZ jabs approved Due to the economy faring worse than we had expected in Q1, we’ve significantly revised down our 2021 GDP forecast. Even so Japan’s economy is still on course for a strong recovery later in the year... 21st May 2021 · 5 mins read
