Europe Economics Weekly ECB’s line on inflation contrasts with the Fed’s In contrast to those at the US Fed, ECB policymakers are not ready to retire their argument that the current bout of high inflation is temporary. This reflects the significant difference in... 3rd December 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Oct.) The surprise 0.6% m/m fall in Brazilian industrial production in October and weakness in the surveys for last month provide early evidence that the contraction in the economy last quarter may be... 3rd December 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Oct) & Final PMIs (Nov.) Euro-zone retail sales have levelled off since June, but rising Covid cases and the return of restrictions are likely to weigh on sales and other components of consumption in the coming months. 3rd December 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly There is policy space to cushion any Omicron blow Low vaccine coverage makes India's economy highly vulnerable to the emergence of the Omicron variant. The crumb of comfort is that there is policy space to soften some of the economic blow from a new... 3rd December 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We see little upside for developed market corporate bonds Even if the global economy proves fairly resilient to Omicron, we don’t think that there is much scope for corporate bonds to perform better than government bonds over the coming years. 2nd December 2021 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update How big a threat is Omicron to Asia? Asian economies, like those elsewhere, have adapted to living with COVID-19 restrictions so that the impact of any tightening would be smaller than it was last year. And unlike in many EMs, there is... 2nd December 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Focus Will labour shortages spur productivity gains? One possible upside of the current labour market shortages in developed economies is that they could push firms towards expanding output by raising investment and productivity instead of relying on... 2nd December 2021 · 19 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Omicron, tourism and the oil market Low vaccine coverage and large tourism sectors mean that the non-Gulf economies are particularly vulnerable to the emergence of the Omicron variant. Meanwhile, the drop in oil prices and the... 2nd December 2021 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Update A last hurrah for housing We are not convinced by the Bank of Canada’s view that the renewed strength of house prices is due to “extrapolative expectations”. With mortgage rates jumping recently, the large price gain in... 2nd December 2021 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy set for a strong end to the year The economic recovery in Saudi Arabia has picked up pace and should end the year on a strong note. The emergence of the Omicron variant has clouded the outlook, but for now we expect economic growth... 2nd December 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q3 2021) The 0.1% q/q fall in Brazilian GDP in Q3 confirmed that problems in the agricultural and industrial sectors tipped the economy into a technical recession. And with financial conditions tightening, the... 2nd December 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update More to Polish industry resilience than meets the eye Poland’s industrial sector as a whole has shaken off widespread materials shortages in recent months, in part due to its more diversified sectoral make-up than the rest of CEE. But it also reflects... 2nd December 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Unemployment (Oct.) While labour market conditions continued to improve in October, the recent deterioration of the Covid situation and increased uncertainty due to the Omicron variant are likely to mean the recovery... 2nd December 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Debt sustainability in Zambia: mission impossible? Zambia’s new administration has made encouraging noises about restoring macroeconomic stability and addressing the country’s public debt problem. But it will be a tall order to secure a large... 2nd December 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs show some signs of supply shortages easing November’s manufacturing PMIs suggest that global industrial production has continued to expand, albeit at a slower pace than earlier this year. There are tentative signs that supply disruptions may... 1st December 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Red-hot Chile set to cool Chile’s economy has been operating above potential for several months but there are signs that activity is starting to cool. And policy tightening, falls in copper prices and the possibility of more... 1st December 2021 · 4 mins read
