India Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) & Industrial Production (Mar.) India’s consumer price inflation dropped to a three-month low in April, adding to evidence elsewhere that the recent tightening of virus restrictions has not been as economically disruptive as the... 12th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Mar.) The 0.7% m/m rise in Mexican industrial production in March masked a more impressive 3.0% m/m increase in output in the key manufacturing sector, which recovered from disruptions caused by power... 12th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway GDP (Q1 2021) The weaker-than-expected 1.0% q/q decrease in Norwegian mainland GDP in Q1 confirmed that the economy slipped behind its Swedish counterpart at the start of the year, and suggests that it is now... 12th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Long Run Update China & US censuses: don’t count on catch-up The 2020 US and China censuses add to the reasons why we think China will struggle to overtake the US as the world’s largest economy. China’s birth rate has continued to fall and the population will... 11th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Mar.) Turkey’s activity figures for March suggest that the economy recorded further growth in Q1. But the recovery lost steam over the quarter and the combination of more restrictive virus containment... 11th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Malaysia GDP (Q1) Malaysia's economy saw an export-driven rebound of 2.7% q/q in Q1, despite a partial lockdown midway through the quarter. But a resurgence in virus cases and the recent reimposition of containment... 11th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q1) The Philippines economy barely improved in Q1 and the reimposition of strict containment measures is likely to see output shrink this quarter. 11th May 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Current messages from the real-time data Real-time data indicate that industry in India has not been hit as severely as services, and is holding up well compared to a year ago. That’s a reflection of the more targeted restrictions that have... 10th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia GDP (Q1, Flash Estimate) Saudi Arabia’s economy recorded a slight contraction in Q1 as the impact of the Kingdom’s additional voluntary output cut more than offset a further rebound in non-oil sectors. With oil output cuts... 10th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales (Mar./Q1 2021) The drop in real retail sales in Q1 suggests that the recovery in consumption slowed last quarter. And with the vaccination drive still slow, we think that consumption will only return to pre-virus... 10th May 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Reasons for hope and despair New infections in a handful of key states including Maharashtra now appear to be stabilising but, with the virus still spreading in almost every other part of the country, containment measures will... 7th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Resilient economic activity not necessarily good news While economic activity appears to have held up well so far in Q2, daily cases are close to record highs at the nationwide level. Indeed, the government is today set to announce an extension of the... 7th May 2021 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Tourism recovering, Phase One deal remains a dud Domestic tourists made a record number of trips over the recent Labour Day holiday. But in a sign that consumers are still holding back, daily tourism spending was still a fifth below pre-pandemic... 7th May 2021 · 6 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Mar. 2021) Wage growth turned positive for the first time since the pandemic began in March and we think it will accelerate further next month due to favourable base effects. Further ahead wage growth should... 7th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Australia - Pandemic unlikely to result in long-term scarring The closure of the border will reduce Australia’s potential output by around 2.5%. But this will be partly offset by higher productivity growth due to increased usage of technology and more employees... 6th May 2021 · 17 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone recovery about to begin Following the recent progress on vaccinations across the euro-zone, we are revising up our GDP forecasts. We now think that the recovery will begin in Q2 and that the economy will return to its pre... 5th May 2021 · 5 mins read
