Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (May) The surge in employment in May demonstrates that the labour market is continuing its extraordinary rebound which supports our call for the RBA to move to a flexible asset purchase programme in July. 17th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q1 2021) The solid rise in activity in Q1 means that New Zealand easily avoided a second technical recession and we expect GDP to continue its rebound over the rest of 2021. 17th June 2021 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack ‘Transitory’ inflation claims look less convincing The further jump in CPI inflation in May was again driven by a handful of categories most affected by the lifting of pandemic restrictions. But there were also clear signs that inflationary pressures... 16th June 2021 · 9 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Vaccine bounce not too far away Japan’s now fast-moving vaccine rollout is set to gather more speed. PM Suga’s one-million-a-day goal could be hit on a 7-day average basis as soon as tomorrow. 18-to-64-year-olds have from today been... 16th June 2021 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Delta variant won’t derail the euro-zone’s recovery The Delta variant does not appear to have taken hold in mainland Europe as yet, but the experience of the Alpha variety suggests that it could be dominant by the end of July. While this would be far... 16th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Gas sector expansion to boost the Israeli Shekel A further expansion of gas production is likely to boost Israel’s current account surplus by an additional 0.4% of GDP per annum by 2025. This will put upwards pressure on the real exchange rate, but... 16th June 2021 · 5 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (May) Headline growth on all the key indicators dropped back last month. But after adjusting for base effects the picture was more mixed, with investment slowing, industrial output growth holding steady and... 16th June 2021 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update External demand to support economy in Q2 India’s goods trade deficit narrowed to an eight-month low in May as exports held up much better than imports. Strong external demand will help to offset some of the damage to domestic demand caused... 16th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Trade (May 2021) & Machinery Orders (Apr.) Despite the spectacular y/y growth rates in May, the rebound in exports is showing signs of slowing. Indeed, we doubt external demand will provide much of a tailwind to growth over the coming months... 16th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Is the ECB over-optimistic on growth? The ECB made significant upward revisions to its GDP forecasts last week, presumably encouraged by the recent experience of other economies. The Bank also seems to have come round to our view that the... 15th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Treasury yields and US stock market rotation We don’t expect the unwinding of the rotation trade in the US stock market over the past month or so, which has coincided with a pull-back in long-dated Treasury yields, to continue. 15th June 2021 · 5 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (May) The 0.8% m/m rise in industrial production in May, driven by a 0.9% gain in manufacturing output, suggests that some of the shortages holding back production in recent months could have eased. But... 15th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Long Run Focus Global migration to bounce back Global migration has ground to a halt over the past year or so, but we doubt that the pandemic will have any major lasting impact. Moreover, there is potential for migration to get a fresh impetus... 15th June 2021 · 21 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (May) The 1.3% decline in retail sales in May is arguably a lot better than it looks because there were big upward revisions to the April data and spending on food and drink services posted another solid... 15th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: consumer spending recovery has further to run Russian household spending looks set to rebound strongly this year as “excess” savings are drawn down, credit continues to expand, government support boosts incomes, and the labour market recovers... 15th June 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Four-week delay to Freedom Day not a big blow to the economy A four-week delay to the easing of the final domestic COVID-19 restrictions beyond 21st June is unlikely to prevent the economy from climbing back to its pre-pandemic size by the autumn. And although... 14th June 2021 · 3 mins read
