FX Markets Weekly Wrap Fed surprise points to further dollar strength The FOMC’s optimistic assessment of the outlook and the significant shift up in its “dot plot” projections has sent the US dollar soaring over the past couple of days. We have brought forward our own... 18th June 2021 · 9 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombian fiscal can-kicking, Brazil electric(ity) shock Colombia’s government recently outlined plans for more moderate fiscal austerity, but this still looks implausible given the current political backdrop. Lingering fiscal risks will probably keep local... 18th June 2021 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BoK hawkish, vaccine hopes, Singapore trade softens Policymakers in Korea have started to sound increasingly hawkish about the outlook for monetary policy, supporting our view that the Bank of Korea will begin raising interest rates before the end of... 18th June 2021 · 9 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA’s recovery, all change in Tanzania The latest hard activity figures suggest that South Africa’s economy started Q2 on a weak footing and, while there were signs of improvement in May, tighter containment measures are likely to have... 18th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly New CPI weights could keep a lid on inflation The introduction of new weights for the June CPI means that some of the item-specific price increases that we expect will not push up headline inflation by as much as we thought. Nevertheless, there... 18th June 2021 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed shifting back to risk management mode The upward revisions to the “dot plot” at this week’s FOMC meeting were hard to square with Fed officials’ continued belief that higher inflation will prove mostly transitory. Nevertheless, we also... 18th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone on the rebound Football fans will not need to be told that life is still not quite back to normal in Europe as the stadiums are less than half full and “Euro 2020” is taking place a full year late. But in many... 18th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Inflation concerns build Inflation has risen sharply across the emerging world in the last few months, prompting much more cautious words from central banks (mainly in Latin America and Emerging Europe), but we expect that EM... 18th June 2021 · 11 mins read
UK Economics Retail Sales (May) Rather than suggest the economic recovery is already spluttering, the decline in retail sales in May is probably just a result of the reopening of indoor hospitality in mid-May prompting households to... 18th June 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Economic rebound underway, capital inflows pick up Real-time data show a notable pick up in activity over the past couple of weeks, most likely due to the easing of virus restrictions in some major states. There are clearly upside risks to our view... 18th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly State of emergency declarations to be lifted The lifting of almost all states of emergency on Sunday should translate into economic activity rebounding further next week and entering Q3 on a relatively strong footing. And with daily cases... 18th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (May 2021) Headline inflation rose sharply in May due largely to a pickup in energy inflation. But while we expect headline inflation to rise further over the coming months, in contrast to many other large... 18th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update COVID Recovery Monitor Our Mobility Trackers show that global economic activity is benefitting from the removal of restrictions in advanced economies. Good progress with vaccinations suggests that this trend should continue... 17th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics China is about to flood EMs with vaccines By September, China could be in a position to export 340mn vaccines doses each month – more than most regions of the world have administered in total so far. China’s vaccines are less effective than... 17th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Hajj limited again, Iran election, Dubai property The Saudi government’s confirmation that the Hajj pilgrimage will be extremely limited this year will weigh on the Kingdom’s economic recovery. Elsewhere, the likely victory for hardliner Ebrahim... 17th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Energy Update Oil demand to rise, but it won’t stop prices falling Global oil demand looks to have held up much better so far in 2021 than during 2020, despite a resurgence of COVID infections in many parts of the world. We expect strong oil demand growth to continue... 17th June 2021 · 4 mins read
