China Data Response China GDP (Q2), Activity & Spending (Jun.) China’s GDP growth dropped back in y/y terms last quarter as the base for comparison became less flattering. In q/q terms, output rose at a slightly faster pace than in Q1, when a flare-up in virus... 15th July 2021 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Manufacturing Sales (May) Manufacturing sales fell again in May as the global supply shortages continued to take their toll. While those shortages should ease in the second half of the year, the rebound in production is set to... 14th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: further weakness to follow mixed May activity data South Africa’s hard activity data for May painted a picture of a bumpy recovery in Q2, as retail sales grew strongly but industrial sectors showed signs of weakness. With tighter virus containment... 14th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Delta variant is a much bigger threat to EMs than DMs The apparent success of vaccines at preventing severe illness and death from the Delta coronavirus variant should mean that it does not pose a major threat to recoveries in most advanced economies... 14th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Euro-zone Industrial Production (May) The euro-zone’s industrial sector took a step backwards in May as the global semiconductor shortage hit auto production. Supply disruptions look set to drag on for a while yet, constraining the sector... 14th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Net capital outflows from emerging markets have picked up over the past month following the Fed’s more hawkish turn at the FOMC meeting in early June. Outflows may intensify over the coming months... 14th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Long Run Update The difficulties of capturing productivity improvements Recent methodological changes by the UK statistics body highlight the difficulties of capturing productivity improvements in official economic data. Although the revisions will make only a small... 14th July 2021 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jun.) Wholesale price inflation dropped for the first time in five months in June and is set to fall sharply over the coming months as commodity prices drop back. With headline CPI inflation also likely to... 14th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q2, Advanced) The economy stumbled in Q2 after the government reimposed restrictions in response to a spike in virus cases, but with new infections down and the government rolling back containment measures, the... 14th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We still expect high US inflation to weigh on Treasuries While the Treasury market shrugged off another stronger-than-expected CPI print today, we continue to expect the US 10-year Treasury yield to rise over the next few years, as high inflation proves... 13th July 2021 · 6 mins read
US Economics A whiff of stagflation Supply shortages will ease only gradually over the next couple of years, putting sustained upward pressure on core inflation and constraining real activity. We expect core inflation to remain above 3%... 13th July 2021 · 23 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (May) Turkey’s activity figures for May, the month of a three-week national lockdown, showed that the industrial sector came through unscathed but that retail sales were hit hard. More timely evidence... 13th July 2021 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Trade (Jun.) Headline trade growth was stronger than expected last month, partly thanks to an increased supply of semiconductors. But exports remained below their recent peak and we still think shipments will... 13th July 2021 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily China’s RRR cut & the outlook for markets The surprise decision on Friday by the PBOC to cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for China’s banks suggests to us that there will be further downward pressure on government bond yields in China... 12th July 2021 · 5 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) & Industrial Production (May) India’s consumer price inflation remained above the 6% upper limit of the RBI’s target range for a second consecutive month in June. But if we are right in thinking that inflation has peaked, the... 12th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (May) The small 0.1% m/m gain in Mexico’s industrial production in May came despite a concerning 0.7% m/m drop in manufacturing production as shortages continued to hamper the auto sector. While there are... 12th July 2021 · 2 mins read
