China Economics Update Quietly doubling down on Made in China 2025 The 14th Five-Year Plan makes clear that self-sufficiency has grown as a priority for China’s leadership. But it is light on specifics. The details will probably be fleshed out in the raft of industry... 19th March 2021 · 9 mins read
India Economics Weekly Renewed virus outbreak a key downside risk The rise in new COVID-19 infections to a three-month high this week does not appear to be a major threat to India's economy yet as cases are still comparatively low and the outbreak has predominantly... 19th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Vaccine rollout kicking into gear, emergency over With Japan initially entirely reliant on imports of the Pfizer vaccine, many initial concerns over the speed of the vaccine rollout centred on supply constraints. However, that hasn't been an issue... 19th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP (Q4 2020) The 6.8% q/q rise in Chile’s GDP in Q4 shows the economy headed into 2021 with significant momentum. And the outlook is bright given the country’s swift vaccine progress. As a result, we are revising... 18th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q4 2020) The solid decline in activity in Q4 means that a second recession is imminent as GDP is bound to decline in Q1. 17th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Growth of goods spending to ease as services recover The recent pick-up in consumer spending in DMs has been characterised by a sharp rise in spending on goods. The next leg of the recovery will be focused on services as restrictions are removed... 17th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: weak recovery to follow January slump South Africa’s hard activity data for January show that virus-related restrictions meant that the economy started the year on a very weak footing. We think that the recovery will struggle to gain much... 17th March 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Feb.) The 2.2% drop in industrial production in February was largely a result of the severe storms that battered the country in the second half of the month and should be mostly reversed in March. But there... 16th March 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update External risks look manageable The narrowing in India’s goods trade deficit in February is likely to soon reverse as the recovery in domestic demand and oil prices pushes up imports. But while this means that India’s recent current... 16th March 2021 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (Jan. & Feb.) Economic growth surged in y/y terms in January and February. But the picture is more mixed after accounting for favourable base effects. Travel restrictions weighed on retail sales but boosted... 15th March 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Focus The 14th Five-Year Plan China’s new policy blueprint seeks above all to promote a large and hi-tech manufacturing sector, both as a defence against decoupling by the West and as a source of productivity gains. Policymakers... 15th March 2021 · 27 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Machinery Orders (Jan. 2021) The fall in machinery orders in January is not particularly surprising given that they had surged significantly above pre-virus levels in December. We still expect business investment to have risen a... 15th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jan.) The small 0.2% m/m rise in Mexican industrial production in January masks a concerning 0.5% m/m fall in manufacturing output. The sector will have also fared poorly in February following the... 12th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jan.) The Turkish activity figures for January suggest that the economy held up relatively well despite the tightening of COVID-19 containment measures around the turn of the year. And there are encouraging... 12th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Legacy of Fukushima nuclear meltdown 10 years on On the 10 th anniversary of the meltdown at Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station, we take a closer look at the disaster’s lasting legacy of higher electricity prices. On the eve of the pandemic... 12th March 2021 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA underlines determination to keep policy loose The Reserve Bank of Australia this week pushed back against mounting expectations of policy tightening both via its market operations as well as via a dovish speech by Governor Lowe. We reiterate our... 12th March 2021 · 6 mins read
