Emerging Europe Data Response Israel GDP (Q1 2021) The surprise 6.5% annualised contraction in Israeli GDP in Q1 largely reflected the impact of a vehicle tax hike on consumption and a sharp fall in government consumption. We expect GDP to rebound... 18th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q1) The euro-zone economy contracted again in Q1 but continued progress on reducing Covid infections and administering vaccines suggests that the region’s economic recovery is underway. 18th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q1 2021) The Q1 GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe revealed a divergence in performance between the regions’ economies amid third virus waves, with Hungary and Romania outperforming. With virus situations... 18th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q1 Preliminary) The economy contracted yet again during the second state of emergency. With the medical situation still worsening during the current third state of emergency and the vaccine rollout too slow, it will... 18th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Near-term inflation pressures mount Near-term inflationary pressures appear to be building. Some of this reflects factors that are likely to be only temporary, such as the “reopening inflation” associated with the easing of virus... 17th May 2021 · 15 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q1 2021) The improvement in Russian GDP growth to -1.0% y/y in Q1 was largely driven by a slight easing of containment measures as virus cases continued to fall during the winter. The vaccine rollout is... 17th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Assessing the market implications of slower growth in China We think slowing economic growth in China – highlighted again by today’s economic data – has several key implications for the country’s financial markets. 17th May 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking stock of Turkey’s economic recovery Turkey’s government has lifted a three-week national lockdown today and this should pave the way for a recovery over the coming months. But the hit to activity during the lockdown means that the... 17th May 2021 · 4 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (Apr.) Year-on-year growth on all indicators dropped back last month. This partly reflects a less flattering base for comparison. But current momentum was also a bit softer, especially for retail sales. We... 17th May 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Trade shows resilience amid virus restrictions Goods trade data for April add to evidence from elsewhere that that the new round of virus restrictions has not been as economically disruptive as the national lockdown last year. 17th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q1) Thailand’s GDP inched up in Q1, despite a renewed outbreak of the virus. But output is unlikely to hold up this quarter. We expect the economy to shrink sharply as a further surge in new COVID-19... 17th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland GDP (Q1 2021, First Estimate) Poland’s economy performed a little worse than most had expected in Q1 and the tightening of restrictions to curb a third wave of COVID-19 means that quarterly growth in Q2 is likely to be slower... 14th May 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Slowdown in vaccine rollout casts a dark cloud New virus cases in India remain extremely high, but there have at least been some encouraging signs this week that the current wave is close to peaking. However, lacklustre progress with the... 14th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Mining investment boom 2.0 unlikely The surge in the price of iron ore will lift Australia’s export revenues and boost mining profits, but we suspect that the impact on domestic demand will be modest. And with the price of liquefied... 14th May 2021 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Recovery delayed as vaccine rollout still too slow The vaccination rollout failed to accelerate markedly after the Golden Week holidays. This is entirely due to logistical challenges rather than insufficient vaccine supply, which should be resolved... 14th May 2021 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: industry strength unlikely to last South African hard activity data for March paint a bright picture of the recovery in the mining and manufacturing sectors. The easing of lockdown measures combined with favourable base effects are... 13th May 2021 · 2 mins read
