Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q4 2020) Turkey’s economy continued to recover in Q4 2020 and was one of the few economies around the world to grow over last year as a whole. But there are signs that activity faltered at the tail end of the... 1st March 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Wage growth near its trough Labour markets in both countries have tightened in recent months. In Australia, the unemployment rate has fallen from a peak of 7.1% to just 6.4% in January. And other measures of spare capacity have... 1st March 2021 · 11 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) India’s manufacturing PMI reading was virtually unchanged in February and remains consistent with a strong recovery in the sector so far this quarter. That should continue over the coming months... 1st March 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China PMIs (Feb.) The latest manufacturing surveys suggest that factory activity didn’t receive the boost we had anticipated from travel restrictions over the Spring Festival. Nevertheless, we think activity will... 1st March 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan likely to cap bond yields before long The global surge in long-term interest rates means that 10-year JGB yields are now the highest they have been since the launch of negative rates in 2016. While we expect the Bank of Japan to widen the... 26th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland GDP (Q4 2020) & KOF Barometer (Feb.) The 0.3% q/q expansion in Swiss GDP in Q4 was slightly better than expected and means that output was just 1.6% smaller than in Q4 2019. Tighter virus-related restrictions and a renewed slump in the... 26th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Jan. 2021) The strong rise in industrial production and only tiny fall in retail sales in January suggest that the economy may not contract this quarter. And with the state of emergency set to end everywhere... 26th February 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jan.) The stronger-than-expected rise in durable goods orders in January lifted them decisively above their pre-pandemic level, which is even more impressive given the still-subdued level of aircraft orders... 25th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Private Capex Survey (Q4) We estimate that private investment rose by 2.6% q/q in Q4, and firms’ expectations of future capital expenditure suggest investment is set to surge this year. 25th February 2021 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch Policy to remain looser for longer The Reserve Bank of Australia will keep policy settings unchanged at the meeting on 2nd March and will probably push back against mounting expectations of policy tightening. 24th February 2021 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Pessimistic RBNZ set to be surprised The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) sounded dovish when it left policy settings unchanged today, but we still expect the Bank to begin increasing rates next year. 24th February 2021 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Activity returning to pre-virus levels Indian GDP data due to be released on Friday are likely to show only a small contraction in annual growth in Q4 2020, and high-frequency indicators point to a relatively strong start to 2021. Indeed... 24th February 2021 · 9 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Oil sector strength mitigating weakness elsewhere The pandemic has thrown up many surprises for the Canadian economy, the latest of which is the speed at which oil production has rebounded. Even though global fuel demand remains weak amid ongoing... 23rd February 2021 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Update Is the slow vaccine rollout a cause for concern? Asia’s vaccine rollout has got off to a slow start. This is not a big concern in countries that have contained the virus and where social distancing is not a drag on growth such as Taiwan and China... 23rd February 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update MPC minutes suggest rate hikes are a long way off The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s February policy meeting – in which interest rates were left unchanged – show that the MPC remains cautious on the inflation outlook but that it is also committed to... 23rd February 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Roadmap leaves economy on course to recover rapidly We think that the government’s roadmap for easing England’s current COVID-19 lockdown will direct the economy back to its pre-pandemic size by Q1 2022. With the Chancellor and the Bank of England... 22nd February 2021 · 3 mins read
