Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM recovery holding up pre-Omicron The latest activity figures suggest that the EM recovery held up reasonably well at the end of last year, although China’s economy was struggling for momentum. While Omicron virus waves are likely to... 27th January 2022 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Activity holds up as Omicron peaks The rapid spread of the Omicron variant in India has caused economic activity to weaken so far in 2022. But the damage has been much less severe than during the previous two outbreaks. Perhaps... 27th January 2022 · 9 mins read
Asia Data Response Taiwan GDP (Q4, provisional) GDP growth in Taiwan rebounded last quarter on the back of a recovery in consumer spending, and we estimate the economy ended the year around 4% above its pre-virus trend. Growth is set to slow over... 27th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q4) While an Omicron wave means the economy’s continued strong performance in Q4 is unlikely to be repeated this quarter, we think growth will pick up again before long. That said, the overall recovery... 27th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy on course for strong 2022 Saudi Arabia’s economic recovery has hit a bump in the road over the past month or so as the Omicron variant has caused activity in the Kingdom’s non-oil economy to slow. But the experience from other... 26th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Rate hikes showing on all policy radars The re-tightening of restrictions has overshadowed the start of the year in Switzerland and the Nordics, and our GDP growth forecasts for 2022 are about 0.5%-pts lower than the consensus. Nonetheless... 26th January 2022 · 12 mins read
Global Trade Monitor Trade rebound chimes with better news on supply chains After gradually trending lower for much of last year, November marked the second consecutive month of strong growth in world trade, which reached a new record high. This adds to evidence that some... 26th January 2022 · 4 mins read
China Economic Outlook Cyclical trough, tepid rebound China will be buffeted in the first half of 2022 by COVID outbreaks and a further slowdown in property construction. Policy support should improve the picture later in the year, but mounting... 26th January 2022 · 23 mins read
Europe Economics How big a deal is the Ukraine crisis for the euro-zone? A Russian military invasion of Ukraine would adversely affect the euro-zone economy by further disrupting the market for energy, pushing up inflation and reducing households’ real incomes. However... 25th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Some good news on the political front Political risk will be a major theme once again in Latin America this year, although recent developments have given cause for cautious optimism. Chilean President-elect Boric’s appointment of Mario... 25th January 2022 · 11 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Wage growth could prompt faster policy tightening The Bank of Canada’s fourth-quarter Business Outlook Survey showed firms’ wage expectations at a record high, which suggests that wage growth could accelerate to far above the pre-pandemic norm this... 25th January 2022 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily We think the fundamental backdrop for gold remains negative Despite its surprising resilience over the past few weeks, we still think the price of gold will fall to $1,600/oz. by the end of 2022. 25th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf to drive a pick-up in regional growth in 2022 The recovery across the Middle East and North Africa is likely to gather pace this year, due in large part to the Gulf where rising oil output will cause GDP growth to pick up to rates well above... 25th January 2022 · 25 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Growth to disappoint, but rates will rise regardless Global growth will be slower this year than last and we expect outturns in major economies including the US and China to be below consensus forecasts. The US economy will be hindered by persistent... 25th January 2022 · 49 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (January) The increase in the Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in January provides more evidence that, after contracting in late 2021, conditions have stabilised at the start of the year. With disruption from... 25th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Central banks in no hurry to tighten Omicron should prove no more than a small stumbling block for Asia. Our forecasts are for above-trend and above-consensus growth in most countries this year. India, Indonesia and Korea are likely to... 25th January 2022 · 34 mins read
