India Economics Weekly Markets are jumping the gun on RBI rate hikes Financial markets appear increasingly convinced that the RBI is on the cusp of monetary tightening, perhaps due to fears of a re-run of the Taper Tantrum in 2013. But India isn’t as vulnerable to a... 12th March 2021 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: lockdown-hit to industry will ease… a bit Tighter virus containment measures imposed in late-2020 in South Africa weighed on manufacturing and mining output in January. We think that industrial activity picked up more recently, but the... 11th March 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Feb.) The rebound in the RICS survey balances in February suggest that home sales were sustained at a very high level even before further policy support was announced in the Budget. Strong sales and limited... 11th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 10th Mar.) Korean trade data suggest that the external sector will have its strongest quarter since 2018. With semiconductor demand set to remain elevated, at least in the short term, exports are likely to... 11th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: semiconductor shortages add to H1 headwinds The disruption to auto production caused by semiconductor shortages is yet another reason (alongside tight COVID-19 restrictions) to expect growth in Central and Eastern Europe to struggle in H1 2021. 10th March 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Focus State elections could brighten reform outlook The upcoming state elections in India will have an important bearing on economic policy at the local level. But perhaps more significant, the outcome of the state elections could be important in... 10th March 2021 · 9 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q4) The slowdown in the pace of South Africa’s recovery in Q4 was less sharp than expected, but the economy is unlikely to gather much momentum over the coming quarters and we still expect GDP to be... 9th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Wages, HH Spending (Jan.) & GDP (Rev. Q4 2020) While the downward revision to Q4 GDP and the sharp fall in “core” household spending in January suggest that the economy faired a little worse than initially reported over the winter, we continue to... 9th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Economy Watchers Survey (Feb. 2021) The sharp rebound in the Economy Watchers Survey in February suggests economic activity is ending the quarter with some momentum. That supports our non-consensus view that the state of emergency won’t... 8th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Border closure to knock 2% off GDP by end-2022 The slow progress in rolling out vaccines in New Zealand means that its border may only be reopened by the end of this year. With net migration boosting population growth by around 1%-pt per annum... 8th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Jan. 2021) The 0.4% m/m rise in Brazilian industrial production in January, down from 0.8% m/m in December, confirms that momentum in the sector is easing. Moreover, with services sector being harder hit by the... 5th March 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update The NPC: Taking away the punch bowl The reports delivered at today’s opening of the National People’s Congress (NPC) confirm that with the COVID-19 downturn now in the rear-view mirror the focus of China’s leadership has shifted away... 5th March 2021 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Risk averse Tokyo, mass vaccinations yet to begin While the Bank of Japan’s consumption index fell a bit more sharply than we were anticipating in January, it came off the back of an upwardly revised, virus-era-high in December. Indeed, our GDP... 5th March 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA taking higher bond yields in its stride The Reserve Bank of Australia’s half-hearted response to the surge in government bond yields underlines that it is not overly worried about the impact of higher borrowing costs on the economy. But... 5th March 2021 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Stage is set for a faster economic recovery India's economic recovery continues to proceed faster than we’d expected. We are revising our forecast for GDP growth this year to 13.5%, above consensus expectations of an 11% rise in output. With... 5th March 2021 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Officials strike hawkish tone ahead of the NPC The National People’s Congress has just kicked off in Beijing. We will publish an Update with our initial analysis once the key details from the meeting have been made public. Recent comments by... 5th March 2021 · 8 mins read
