Europe Economics Update New Covid restrictions another headwind Several euro-zone governments have tightened coronavirus rules lately and more measures are on the cards, including in Germany. On the whole, these are set to be less severe than they were earlier... 18th November 2021 · 4 mins read
US Chart Pack Fed’s inflation dilemma isn’t going away Whether Jerome Powell or Lael Brainard is given the nod over the coming days, the next 12-18 months are shaping up to be an unusually challenging period for the Fed Chair. The October data showed a... 18th November 2021 · 8 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Automobile sector set for swift rebound While October’s trade data showed good exports still depressed by the recent collapse in domestic car production, there is growing anecdotal evidence that the auto sector is on the cusp of a rapid... 18th November 2021 · 10 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Tunisia fiscal policy, Egypt’s private sector, COVID-19 Tunisia’s government upwardly revised its 2021 budget deficit target this week which, coupled with growing signs of it making concessions to appease the UGTT labour union, adds to our view that the... 18th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Turkey and EM contagion risks The latest crisis engulfing Turkey is likely to make it harder for the country to roll over its external debts, with the banking sector particularly vulnerable. If Turkey’s crisis worsens, it may... 18th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch An opportunity to dial down the dovishness a touch The Riksbank is all but certain to leave its policy settings on hold next week. But against a backdrop of above-target inflation and the broader hawkish shift by policymakers elsewhere, we expect it... 18th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP (Q3 2021) The 4.9% q/q surge in Chile’s GDP in Q3 took output not only above its pre-pandemic level but also its pre-crisis trend. The strength of the figures means that we now expect above-consensus growth of... 18th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q3) The drop in Nigeria’s GDP growth to 4.0% y/y in Q3 points to the recovery in activity outside the key oil sector petering out. We think this will continue over the coming quarters, weighing on... 18th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q3 2021) The softer-than-expected 4.3% y/y expansion in Russia’s GDP in Q3 suggests that the recovery lost momentum during the summer and, with the severe virus outbreak likely to take its toll on domestic... 17th November 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Focus How much scarring will the pandemic leave? The pandemic’s most significant economic legacy in India will be a heavily-damaged banking sector that is likely to constrain investment over the years ahead. This underpins our view that the economy... 17th November 2021 · 18 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Sep.) South Africa’s hard activity data for September point to output continuing to rebound in the sectors hardest hit by violent unrest in July. But the economy probably still contracted over Q3 as a whole... 17th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update COVID Recovery Monitor Rising virus numbers have caused containment measures to be reimposed in Emerging Europe and now seem to be harming consumer activity in the euro-zone. There is a strong risk of further restrictions... 17th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q3 2021) The stronger-than-expected 5.7% q/q jump in Colombia’s GDP in Q3 more than offset the setback in Q2, and took output 2.6% above its pre-pandemic level. While the recovery will slow from here, we now... 16th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Net capital outflows from EMs have persisted in recent weeks and, looking ahead, a further rise in US Treasury yields could lead to larger outflows over the coming months. The good news is that –... 16th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Switzerland in the path of the Covid storm Germany and Austria are at the centre of the Covid storm in Europe, and the fact that vaccination coverage in Switzerland is even lower does not bode well. Vaccine take-up varies from about 60-80% in... 16th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Long Run Update COP26 a small step forward but much left to do COP26 has progressed efforts to fight climate change, but there is still a significant gap between pledges and actual policies. Unless action ramps up this decade, countries may face a choice between... 16th November 2021 · 3 mins read
