Japan Data Response Bank of Japan Tankan (Q1 2021) The further strong rebound in the Q1 Tankan supports our view that the economy’s recovery from the pandemic will gather pace again soon. And firms’ upbeat capital spending plans for the upcoming... 1st April 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Will households spend the money they have saved? We’ve assumed households just go back to saving the same share of their income as they did before the crisis. That is enough to drive a rapid economic recovery. The upside risk is if households go... 31st March 2021 · 5 mins read
China Data Response China Official PMIs (Mar.) The latest surveys suggest that after being hit by virus disruptions earlier in the year, activity bounced back strongly this month. But we suspect it won’t be long before growth is slowing again. 31st March 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Industrial Production (Feb. 2021) The fall in industrial production in February came off the back of a strong January and shouldn’t prevent manufacturing output rising across Q1. And firms’ production forecasts for April point to a... 31st March 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Asian central banks in no rush to raise interest rates Unlike in some emerging markets, central banks across Emerging Asia are in no rush to tighten monetary policy. External factors won’t compel policymakers to tighten, and with inflationary pressures... 30th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Market & Retail Sales (Feb. 2021) The strong rise in retail sales in February to their highest level since September 2019 supports our view that the economy just about avoided a contraction in Q1. And while the unemployment rate was... 30th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Vietnam GDP (Q1) Vietnam’s economy lost a little momentum in the first quarter due to a renewed virus outbreak, but with the latest wave quashed and most restrictions now lifted, the economy should bounce back... 29th March 2021 · 3 mins read
RBI Watch RBI unlikely to follow its EM peers EM monetary policy has turned decidedly more hawkish in recent weeks. But, with a renewed surge COVID-19 infections a downside risk to India’s recovery, we don’t think the Reserve Bank will be joining... 29th March 2021 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly In with the TOPIX, car chipmaker fire, mobility surge While we revised up our forecasts for long-term US Treasury yields this week, we've left our upbeat forecasts for Japanese equities unchanged. One major change we have made though is to switch our... 26th March 2021 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Government’s housing moves take pressure off RBNZ New tax policies aimed at reducing the appeal of housing as an investment asset in New Zealand, together with the RBNZ’s macroprudential policies, should lead to lower house price growth in the months... 26th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: BSP to resume easing cycle later in the year The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) left its main policy rate on hold at 2.00% today, and while a temporary rise in inflation means interest rates are set to remain on hold for the next few... 25th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to further recovery, strong price pressures March’s advanced economy PMIs painted a positive picture, with headline indices typically now well into expansionary territory. Supply shortages are boosting prices and constraining output to some... 24th March 2021 · 2 mins read
China Activity Monitor Rebound levelling off as tighter policy starts to bite Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) shows a surge in year-on-year growth at the start of 2021. But the picture is more mixed after accounting for favourable base effects. Buoyant foreign demand boosted... 24th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Impact of a travel bubble would be small Even if the long-rumoured Australia-New Zealand travel bubble does go ahead, it wouldn’t make a huge difference to either economy. We think the bubble would give a small boost to New Zealand’s GDP and... 24th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (Mar. 2021) The slight rise in the composite PMI in March was a little disappointing given that most state of emergency declarations had been lifted and suggests that the economy may not be entering Q2 with much... 24th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update What would a global return to normality mean for Asia? As vaccines are rolled out across the world and restrictions on economic activity are removed, we expect global consumption patterns to return to something like normal. Electronics exporters, most... 22nd March 2021 · 3 mins read
