China Data Response China PMIs (Apr.) The latest surveys suggest that growth edged down this month. Supply-side disruptions appear mostly to blame for a slower rise in manufacturing output. But there are also signs of a demand-led... 30th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Market & Industrial Production (Mar. 2021) The rebound in industrial production and the sharp drop in the unemployment rate in March are consistent with our view that the economy held up much better than most had anticipated during the second... 30th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Three is not the magic number in Chile The third round of pension withdrawals in Chile will help to boost its economic recovery in the near term, but is unlikely to be as impactful as the previous two. The broader concern is that it... 29th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Apr.) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) recorded their largest ever monthly aggregate improvement across Central and Eastern Europe in April. Sentiment remains below its pre-pandemic level but... 29th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Economic recovery facilitates house price surge House prices are now surging in both countries. House price cycles in the Australian housing market tend to lag those in New Zealand a little, which is consistent with the forward indicators pointing... 29th April 2021 · 11 mins read
China Economic Outlook Rebound levelling off After treading water in Q1, activity should pick up again this quarter following the relaxation of domestic travel restrictions. But growth will be more modest than most expect over the next couple of... 28th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Retail Sales (Mar. 2021) The further rise in retail sales in March suggests that consumer spending was relatively strong in between the third and fourth waves of coronavirus. The strength in goods consumption in February and... 28th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf leads the way in unbalanced recovery A strong vaccine rollout in the Gulf, particularly in the UAE and Bahrain, and Morocco should mean that containment measures are eased soon, paving the way for sustained economic recoveries. But the... 27th April 2021 · 25 mins read
India Economics Update How badly is the economy being hit? Real-time data on traffic, electricity demand and mobility suggest that, so far at least, India’s virus outbreak has had more of an impact on behaviour than it has on activity. We will continue to... 27th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Kuroda’s term to end with inflation still below target The Bank of Japan kept policy settings unchanged today as widely anticipated. And by predicting inflation well below its 2% target all the way to FY2023, the Bank signalled that Governor Kuroda won’t... 27th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea GDP (Q1, provisional) Korea’s economic recovery regained momentum in Q1, adding weight to our above-consensus growth forecast of 5% for 2021. Loose fiscal policy and strong export demand should continue to support the... 27th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update A closer look at ‘excess’ household savings Income support and limits on spending had already led households in advanced economies to build up almost $3.5tn in extra cash by the end of 2020, equating to 7.6% of GDP. And the stockpile of these... 26th April 2021 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly New growth forecasts, service sector divergence We’ve nudged down our China growth forecast for 2021 in response to incoming data suggesting that momentum slowed more than we’d expected in the early part of this year. Our expectations for the rest... 23rd April 2021 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly How damaging will be the new restrictions be? With the economic damage from last year’s lockdown still fresh in the memory, there appears to be little appetite for a return to extreme measures to curb the ongoing outbreak. But given the very... 23rd April 2021 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Economy to stagnate in first half of the year The states of emergency set to begin in four major prefectures on Sunday will knock back Japan’s economic recovery and should mean that output stagnates across the first half of 2021. While the... 23rd April 2021 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Domestic travel fuelling recovery The available data suggest that the recovery in consumption stalled at the start of the year and the slow rollout of vaccines could be an additional headwind. However, with the virus all but... 23rd April 2021 · 5 mins read
