Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Lockdowns and bond yields ease The end of the lockdown in Victoria is an upside risk to our forecast that consumption will be unchanged in Australia in Q2. Meanwhile, S&P upgraded Australia’s credit rating outlook but that has... 11th June 2021 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Monsoon puts a cloud over vaccine rollout The monsoon season has begun in India and the extent of the rains has a significant impact on the incomes of hundreds of millions of families given the high level of employment in agriculture. A good... 11th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 10th June) Korean export values dipped a little at the start of June after a record high in May, but external shipments remain well above their pre-crisis level and should continue to boost GDP growth. 11th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: mixed industry performance to converge to weakness South African hard activity data for April painted a mixed picture about the rebound in the mining and manufacturing sectors. By and large, though, the economy is in for a slow and bumpy recovery. 10th June 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Inflation risks rising The risks to our forecast that CPI inflation will rise from 1.5% in April to a peak of 2.6% in November before dropping back in 2022 are increasingly on the upside. Rises in shipping costs and global... 10th June 2021 · 9 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Falling inflation won’t stop Norges Bank rate hikes Rising global price pressures have pushed inflation up in Switzerland and Sweden this year, but their central banks look set to leave policy on hold. In contrast, inflation in Norway has been falling... 9th June 2021 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update Resilient remittances will aid the recovery Remittance flows into India have been resilient in recent months and, with employment prospects for Indian migrants looking better than a year ago, they should continue to hold up well. That should... 9th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: leading the CEE recovery in 2021 The strength of Romania’s economy in Q1 and the positive outlook for growth over the coming quarters means that we now expect GDP to expand by 6.8% this year (compared to 4.8% previously). 8th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q1) South Africa’s economy weathered a second virus wave relatively well, but with cases rising again and other headwinds hanging over the outlook, the recent strength of the recovery is unlikely to last. 8th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q1) Euro-zone GDP fell in Q1 and official data for April have been weak, but timelier data suggest that the recovery is now underway. We have pencilled in a 1% q/q rise in GDP in Q2, with risks to the... 8th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Apr.) The decline in German industrial production in April underlines that the German economy was performing well below normal at the start of the second quarter. But things should have improved since then... 8th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Wages (Apr.) & GDP (Revised Q1 2021) While the marked acceleration in wage growth in April was largely down to favourable base effects, we think wage growth will remain strong throughout this year as the labour market tightens and... 8th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Iran: nuclear deal, elections and the economy Negotiators appear to be closing in on an agreement to revive Iran’s nuclear deal which, if revitalised, would provide a substantial lift to Iran’s economy – it could plausibly expand by 8-10% per... 7th June 2021 · 6 mins read
China Data Response China Trade (May) Headline trade growth remained elevated last month. But trade volumes dropped back in levels terms and, while supply constraints are partly to blame, there are signs that demand may have peaked too. 7th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Springing back to life…again The economic outlook has brightened as the virus has subsided and governments have permitted people to return to the shops and restaurants as well as to travel a bit more freely. However... 4th June 2021 · 12 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Apr.) Russian activity data for April were relatively strong and suggest that a sustained recovery is taking hold in Q2 thanks to an easing of virus restrictions on services sectors and continued rebound in... 4th June 2021 · 2 mins read
