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Russia-Ukraine: a weekend catch-up

On the military front, while events remain in flux, the Russian advance has proceeded more slowly than had been anticipated. Kyiv, seemingly Russia’s main target, remains under the control of Ukraine’s government. Russia and Ukraine have agreed to peace talks in Belarus, which according to the Belarusian government are scheduled to start later today. But President Putin has also put Russia’s nuclear forces on “high alert” in response to an escalation in Western sanctions. The range of potential outcomes remains extremely wide, which, as we argued last week means it’s better to think in terms of scenarios and then consider the macro and market consequences than it is to take strong positions on the likely end-game. In view of the wider interest, we are making this Global Economics Update available to all clients.

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