Global Economics Update Will vaccine hesitancy prevent economies reopening? 28th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Naira devalued for real, utility deals in Ethiopia & SA Policymakers in Nigeria appear to have bowed to pressure to devalue the official exchange rate, which will probably improve the public finances and help unlock multilateral financing. That said, a... 28th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Drop back in bond yields takes pressure off ECB The fall in sovereign bond yields over the past week may make things a little easier for the ECB Governing Council when it meets on 10 th June. We think it is likely to replace its commitment to make... 28th May 2021 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss seven-year itch; lots to ponder at the Riksbank The breakdown of the Swiss/EU Treaty talks has taken the headlines this week, but the Swiss economy appears to be galloping ahead in any case. While the belated release of Q1 GDP data next week is... 28th May 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Troubles in construction unlikely to be repeated elsewhere Output in the construction sector was already 2.3% above its pre-crisis level in March and there is evidence that supply constraints are starting to bite. However, there is still plenty of spare... 28th May 2021 · 4 mins read
China Activity Monitor Surprising on the upside Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that output rose further above its pre-virus trend last month thanks to the recent rebound in services and continued strength in industry and construction. We... 28th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (May) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators showed strong increases in most countries in May, largely driven by improvements in services sentiment as economies have started to re-open. This is likely to be... 28th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia’s recovery set back, RBNZ signals rate hikes The outbreak of the Indian virus variant in Victoria this week highlights the risks from the slow vaccine roll-out. Despite strong investment figures for Q1, we are sticking to our forecast that the... 28th May 2021 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly State of emergency extension, Olympic fifth wave? While the fourth wave of coronavirus has broken, with hospital capacity still stretched the government will today extend the emergency declarations covering half of the economy until 20 th June. That... 28th May 2021 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Activity bottoming out The continued drop in new virus cases has coincided with a bottoming out in some of the real-time activity data, and the evidence from last year suggests that activity could bounce back rapidly when... 28th May 2021 · 5 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Labour shortages may take some time to clear With labour shortages weighing on hiring there is even more uncertainty than usual over May’s employment report, but we estimate that non-farm payrolls rose by a relatively subdued 500,000. 27th May 2021 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Apr.) The 1.3% m/m decline in durable goods orders in April partly reflected the impact of semiconductor shortages in the automobile sector, with motor vehicle orders falling by 6.2% m/m last month... 27th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM recovery losing momentum in Q2 High-frequency data suggest that economies in Emerging Europe and parts of Latin America are over the worst of their latest virus outbreaks, but the worrying surge in virus cases in some Asian... 27th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank and Riksbank won’t wait for the ECB The Norges Bank has a history of beginning to tighten policy earlier than the ECB and we think it will follow that pattern again this year. Meanwhile, although it’s not the most likely scenario, we... 27th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea unlikely to alter policy soon The Bank of Korea (BoK) left its main policy rate on hold at 0.50% today and given that the recovery still has a way to go, the BoK is likely to leave policy accommodative for at least the next few... 27th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Private Capex Survey (Q1) We estimate that private investment rose by 4.1% q/q in Q1 and firms’ expectations of future capital expenditure suggest the strong rebound in investment is set to continue in the months ahead. 27th May 2021 · 2 mins read
