UK Economics GDP (Q1 Final) The small downward revision to Q1 GDP growth probably won’t stop the economy from rising back to its pre-pandemic peak in the coming months. And the larger-than-expected rebound in the household... 30th June 2021 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Official PMIs (Jun.) The latest surveys suggest that growth softened this month. A slower improvement in services activity was mostly to blame. But supply shortages also continued to hold back output in the manufacturing... 30th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Industrial Production (May 2021) The plunge in industrial output in May probably reflects chip shortages, but firms’ production forecasts point to a marked rebound over the coming months. 30th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Stress tests, the financial sector and bond yields We think the positive results from the Federal Reserve’s stress tests remove an obstacle to higher bond yields, while reinforcing the positive outlook for the financial sector. 29th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Economic ‘immunity’ improving Latin America is once again the global epicentre of COVID-19 but, from an economic perspective, the region has built up significant immunity to the virus. Indeed, despite the surge in new virus cases... 29th June 2021 · 14 mins read
UK Economics Recovery evolving rather than stalling The recent softening in some indicators of activity is probably mostly a result of shifts in spending patterns within the economy rather than a sign that the recovery has already stalled. As such, we... 29th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (June) Economic sentiment in the euro-zone improved sharply in June as restrictions were lifted further. Although industrial confidence was flattered by low levels of stocks, presumably relating to supply... 29th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (June) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators showed a further rise in regional sentiment in June, driven by improvements in retail and services sectors. That said, there is also continued evidence of... 29th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Focus Transition to carbon neutral 2050 wouldn’t harm growth Achieving net zero emissions in Japan in three decades is a difficult but achievable task. And while the most carbon-intensive sectors may face significant headwinds, overall we agree with PM Suga... 29th June 2021 · 30 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi recovery gathering pace Saudi Arabia’s economic recovery seems to have got back on track in Q2 and, as virus restrictions are eased further and oil production cuts are scaled back, a strong second half of the year lies in... 29th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Vietnam GDP (Q2) Looking past the jump in y/y growth due to a weak base for comparison, GDP data suggest that Vietnam is facing a heavy economic toll from its efforts to control the virus. With sporadic outbreaks... 29th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Market & Retail Sales (May 2021) While the further rise in the unemployment rate last month suggests on-off restrictions are taking their toll on the labour market, employment should bounce back strongly soon. Meanwhile, consumer... 29th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Assessing the risks to our positive view of E-Z peripheral bonds While the risk that political events cause an increase in euro-zone “peripheral spreads” has arguably diminished recently, a withdrawal of ECB support has become more of a concern. On balance though... 28th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: little hit from tighter restrictions, SARB to stay dovish The further tightening of virus containment measures in South Africa for at least the next two weeks is unlikely to inflict severe damage on the economy. But it reinforces our view that the Reserve... 28th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Central banks turning hawkish, virus waves easing Latin American central banks are becoming increasingly hawkish, not just in Mexico (after yesterday's surprise rate hike), but also in Brazil and Chile. Colombia may soon join this club. While the... 25th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Oil price rally more important than slump in lumber The dramatic fall in lumber prices over the past month has captured a lot of attention, but it is the more gradual rally in oil prices that is likely to have the greatest bearing on the economic... 25th June 2021 · 6 mins read
