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Early signs of trade fallout from the war

The latest available official data suggest that world trade held onto gains from Q4 in January, and timely indicators suggest that it may have edged up in February. It will be May before we have comprehensive official data on the hit to trade activity in March from the war. For now, though, AIS vessel positioning data indicate that seaborne trade has fallen significantly in Russia, and ground to a halt in Ukraine.

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