Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jan.) The latest fiscal data suggest that the euro-zone’s peripheral economies generally improved theirbudgetary positions last year. But, with the exception of Ireland, their public debt is not yet falling... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Oil price falls will depress inflation for some time yet Euro-zone consumer price inflation looks likely to pick up later this year, driven by the fading direct effect of lower oil prices and the feed-through of previous falls in the euro to consumer prices... 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update The ECB is losing the global currency race Having succeeded in bringing the euro down sharply last year, the European Central Bank (ECB) has recently fallen behind in the race amongst global policymakers to weaken their currencies in order to... 4th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack A weak start to the year Hard data for the fourth quarter of last year, including GDP estimates for some countries and industrial production and retail sales figures for the region as a whole, suggest that euro-zone GDP... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update EU draft deal leaves Brexit in the balance Today’s publication of a draft deal on the UK’s EU negotiations is another step towards a referendum as soon as June. The modest proposed reforms will probably leave the vote very close. If the UK did... 2nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone consumers have spent their oil windfalls The decline in oil prices and inflation has probably had a more positive impact on the euro-zone economy than expected as the region’s consumers have spent their windfalls. But as the oil boost fades... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) December’s euro-zone monetary data suggested that money and lending growth in the currency union has peaked, adding to the case for the ECB to loosen monetary policy significantly in March. 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Jan.) January’s EC consumer and business survey supported the message from other survey indicators that the euro-zone’s economy slowed at the start of the year. 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Can we believe the ECB this time? We said after December’s “Draghi disappointment” that we would take future verbal policy steers from the ECB with a healthy pinch of salt. But there are some good reasons to expect the President and... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jan.) January’s decline in the euro-zone Composite PMI suggests that the economy got off to a slow start this year. With the twin boosts from previous sharp falls in oil prices and the euro set to fade, a... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB stokes expectations again... this time it must meet them The ECB signalled firmly today that further policy loosening is imminent. While we are wary of putting too much faith in its communications after last month’s disappointment, there are good reasons to... 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Are the euro-zone surveys too optimistic? The disconnect between the surveys and the official data for Q4 became ever clearer last week, with the release of disappointingly weak November industrial production figures. While the surveys were... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Nov.) The euro-zone goods trade surplus rose in November, suggesting that exports might have added to GDP growth in Q4. Nevertheless, we suspect that net trade will make little contribution to growth this... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB on hold for now, but doves will win in the end After disappointing markets in December, we expect the ECB to indicate at its forthcoming meeting that the door is still open to bolder policy support. The Bank is unlikely to alter policy for now... 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Growth to disappoint as consumer recovery slows While the euro-zone economy ended last year with some momentum, expectations of a further acceleration in growth in 2016 will be disappointed. The boost to consumer spending from the decline in oil... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Nov.) November’s fall in euro-zone industrial production added to evidence that the economy performed worse in Q4 than the surveys have implied and perhaps even failed to match Q3’s modest 0.3% expansion. 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
