Europe Economics Update ECB fails to live up to its own hype The European Central Bank’s failure to meet the expectations for further policy loosening fuelled by its own dovish signals has dented both its reputation for communication and, more importantly, the... 3rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Oct.) & Final PMIs (Nov.) October’s euro-zone retail sales data suggest that the consumer recovery might be losing some steam. But the final PMIs for November suggest that the overall economic recovery might actually have... 3rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Current QE rules won’t stop the ECB An expansion of the QE programme tomorrow would probably require some changes to ECB rules. But we do not think that this will be enough to deter the Bank from implementing more stimulus. 2nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Nov.) November’s weaker-than-expected euro-zone consumer prices figures gave a final green light for the ECB to announce much-needed additional monetary policy stimulus at tomorrow’s Governing Council... 2nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Nov.) The latest fiscal data provided further evidence that the peripheral countries are improving their budgetary positions. But with some of these countries planning to loosen the fiscal reins next year... 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Oct.) & Final Mfg PMI (Nov.) October’s euro-zone unemployment data confirmed that the region’s steady labour market recovery has continued. But the bigger picture is that unemployment remains too high to boost wage growth and... 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is the ECB right to be worried about commercial property pricing? The ECB has expressed concern at the high level of commercial property pricing. However, with alternative asset class yields set to stay low and the potential for further rental value growth, we think... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Nov.) November’s EC consumer and business survey supported the message from other survey indicators released earlier this week that after Q3’s slowdown the eurozone’s economic recovery may have regained... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) Euro-zone monetary data showed some signs of improvement in October, but continue to point to low inflation and slow growth, strengthening the case for the ECB to increase its stimulus next week. 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Nov.) November’s solid rise in the euro-zone composite PMI suggests that the region’s recovery might regain some pace in Q4 after Q3’s slight slowdown. But we doubt that the outlook has improved enough to... 23rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Capital value growth set to peak in 2015 Compared to our last Analyst, we have increased our expectations for yield compression over the next two years. Yet in most markets, lower yields in 2017 will lead to greater upward yield pressure in... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the Paris attacks loosen Europe’s fiscal shackles? While fiscal authorities may tolerate increased security spending by some governments after the Paris terror attacks, suggestions that Europe’s budget rules will be swept aside are over the top. 18th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Little sign that euro-zone property cycles are close to their peak The latest RICS Global Commercial Property Survey shows that around 70% of respondents believe that property in Germany and France is expensive. Yet while German capital values in particular have... 10th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Capital values increase at strongest pace since the crisis Yield compression across each of the main property sectors picked up sharply in Q3, leading to the strongest quarterly fall in euro-zone all-property yields in the currency bloc’s history. With rental... 5th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Sep.) September’s euro-zone retail sales data suggested that the region’s consumer recovery is starting to run out of steam. 5th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Oct.) & Producer Prices (Sep.) October’s rise in the euro-zone composite PMI suggested that the region’s recovery maintained its pace at the start of Q4. But current rates of growth are too slow to put upward pressure on inflation... 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
