Global Markets Update Euro's strength against the US dollar unlikely to last The euro has been on an upward trend against the US dollar for nearly two years, largely reflecting improving sentiment towards the euro-zone economy and reduced fears of break-up. But the relative... 24th March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Rebalancing to weigh on euro-zone inflation further Recent data show that the euro-zone labour market is finally starting to strengthen and that labour costs are falling in the periphery relative to the core. But, while some economies are adjusting... 24th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Ukraine crisis is a far bigger threat to Russia than the West The crisis in Ukraine still has the potential to have a significant impact on the European economy and global financial markets. Nonetheless, the most likely outcome appears to be a limited exchange... 21st March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Industrial malaise could soon start to ease Although January’s euro-zone industrial figures made disappointing reading, the recent weakness of the sector partly reflects a plunge in energy production. Encouragingly, orders data paint a more... 17th March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Jan.) January’s euro-zone industrial production figures got the year off to a disappointingly soft start and underline the fragility of the recovery in both industry and the broader economy. 12th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What are the relative prospects for euro-zone and US bonds? The risks of deflation in the euro-zone, particularly in light of the ECB’s continued inaction last Thursday, should keep the yields on ten-year core euro-zone government bonds well below those on US... 11th March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Slack & euro could yet force the ECB's hand While last week’s decision by the ECB to leave policy on hold may be a signal that the euro-zone’s long monetary policy loosening cycle is finally over, the combination of the greater emphasis on the... 10th March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB bolsters guidance, but may still need to act The ECB opted to keep its policy powder dry today, preferring instead to strengthen its verbal forward guidance by emphasising the large amount of slack in the economy. But we still think it may need... 6th March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Euro-zone consumers yet to join the recovery While euro-zone activity indicators suggest that the region’s recovery has picked up speed a bit in the early months of 2014, growth remains worryingly unbalanced. For now, exporters appear to be... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Euro-zone property prospects are improving Euro-zone property markets ended the year on strong note, with many seeing a material rise in investment market activity. Small falls in yields were also more common than not. Our economic forecasts... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4), Final PMIs (Feb.) & Retail Sales (Jan.) The latest batch of data on the euro-zone provided rather mixed signals for the European Central Bank ahead of its Governing Council meeting on Thursday. But we still think more policy action is... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Does the Ukraine crisis threaten the European recovery? While the Ukraine crisis won’t have major effects on the European economy, it is another warning to the policymakers not to rely on a very positive global environment to sustain the region’s recovery... 4th March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Stars still aligned for more ECB support Despite last week's stronger than expected euro-zone inflation figures, the combination of still very weak price pressures, the strong euro and recent falls in liquidity in the banking sector still... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Feb.) & Unemployment (Jan.) February’s euro-zone consumer prices figures don’t change the picture of very weak price pressures in the currency union and hence don’t rule out further policy action from the ECB next week. 28th February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Feb.) & Spanish GDP (Q4) The small rise in the European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in February provided another indication that the economic recovery has built up a little momentum at the start of the... 27th February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) Given hopes that the ECB’s Asset Quality Review had temporarily depressed lending last year, January’s weak euro-zone monetary data will keep pressure on the ECB to loosen policy further. 27th February 2014 · 1 min read
