ECB Watch Euro’s rise puts Draghi under pressure again The rise in the euro exchange rate has put the onus on the ECB to maintain and perhaps increase monetary policy support. We doubt that the Bank will announce any policy changes following its meeting... 27th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) July’s euro-zone monetary data suggest that Q2’s slowdown in GDP growth is not the beginning of a more substantial downturn. Nevertheless, growth is likely to remain sluggish. And the problems in... 27th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the euro’s rise stall the recovery? Agriculture accounts for 2% of GDP while the livestock sector is probably 1% or less. Accordingly, a 10% reduction in livestock output would reduce GDP by 0.1% for as long as it lasts. This accords... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greek election adds to bailout implementation risks Prime Minister Tsipras’ decision to call an election threw the Greek situation back into disarray only hours after he secured Greece’s first bailout payment last week. Tsipras should win, perhaps with... 21st August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Aug.) August’s rise in the euro-zone composite PMI came as a relief after last month’s fall and signs of a slowdown in other indicators. But it still points to modest growth that will do little to erode the... 21st August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek bailout approved, but implementation doubtful The German Parliament’s approval of the third Greek bailout should prompt payments allowing Greece to narrowly avoid default yet again. But Grexit risks have not disappeared and are likely to flare up... 19th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Risk of deflation still confined to euro-zone and Japan Fears of a period of widespread deflation look misplaced, in our view, despite the recent fall in oil prices and China’s devaluation. Domestic forces will continue to be the key drivers of inflation... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Jun.) June’s euro-zone goods trade data suggested that net trade boosted GDP growth in Q2. But as the effects of the weaker euro fade, export growth might soon slow again. 17th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2 Prov.) Euro-zone GDP growth lost some pace in the second quarter, with a renewed divergence between healthy growth in Germany and stagnation in France. 14th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Jun.) June’s fall in industrial production rounded off a very weak quarter for the sector and strongly suggested that industry will have contributed to a slowdown in quarterly GDP growth in Q2. 12th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek bailout built on fantasy forecasts While Greece appears finally to be on the verge of receiving a third bailout, the extremely optimisticeconomic & fiscal projections underlying the plan suggest that it might not last for very long. 11th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Slower pace of euro-zone yield compression set to be maintained Euro-zone all-property yields fell by just 3bps in the second quarter, their slowest quarterly decline since 2013. We believe this is likely to mark the start of a period in which yields now edge down... 10th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Can the Spanish economy keep its place in the sun? Spain is set to remain the fastest growing of the major euro-zone economies for the next few quarters. But while the economy’s fundamentals have improved, the recent impressive growth rates also rest... 7th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Why hasn’t the German recovery taken off? Hopes that Germany would drive a strong euro-zone recovery have faded as subdued demand for its exports has offset the boost from a weaker euro. This trend is set to continue. And as the consumer... 6th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Jun.) & Final PMIs (Jul.) The sharp drop in euro-zone retail sales in June suggests that consumer spending growth slowed in Q2. But July’s final Composite PMI implies that the wider economy maintained a steady pace of... 5th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jul.) The peripheral economies continued to make fiscal progress in June. But halfway through the year, most have much more work to do if they are to meet their 2015 budget targets. The economic... 3rd August 2015 · 1 min read
