Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Oct.) The euro-zone’s peripheral economies appear to have improved their fiscal positions in the year to September. But progress hasn’t been sufficient for most to put their debt ratios on a downward trend... 2nd November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Oct.) & Unemployment (Sep.) While the euro-zone avoided a second straight month of falling prices in October, the absence of inflation in the region keeps the pressure firmly on the ECB to expand its QE programme in December. 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Oct.) October’s EC business and consumer survey suggested that the euro-zone’s economic recovery may have gathered some pace at the start of Q4. But it also showed that consumer inflation expectations... 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can the ECB really cut rates even further? While we have argued for some time that the ECB will expand its asset purchases in December, we now expect it to cut its deposit rate further into negative territory too. This seems unlikely to have... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Weak inflation expectations add to pressure on ECB The dovish stance taken by the ECB in recent weeks has partly reflected its fear that inflation expectations have become unanchored from the near-2% target. Such concerns are justified, supporting... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) September’s euro-zone monetary data point to low inflation and continued slow growth, which is likely strengthen the conviction of policymakers at the ECB that more stimulus is needed. 27th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Oct.) October’s rise in the euro-zone composite PMI suggested that the region’s recovery continued at a modest pace at the start of Q4. But the fading boosts from the lower oil price and weaker euro point... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB all but promises more support in December While the European Central Bank left monetary policy unchanged today, President Draghi gave even stronger-than-anticipated signals that the QE programme will be expanded in December. 22nd October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response ECB Bank Lending Survey (Oct.) The ECB’s October Bank Lending Survey (BLS) revealed a slight loosening of credit conditions for firms and stronger demand for loans. It also gave positive signals about the effects of QE on bank... 20th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Aug.) August’s euro-zone goods trade data showed that weakening global demand over the summer took a toll on the region’s exporters, causing the trade surplus to fall from a record high. 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Aug.) August’s decline in euro-zone industrial production suggested that the sector is still struggling to grow despite the weaker euro and that it will not be a major driver of the euro-zone’s sluggish... 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus What are the prospects for core Europe? With the periphery’s problems far from over, hopes for the euro-zone’s future rest with the core countries. But neither Germany nor France seem set for an economic transformation and the fiscal union... 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Which markets offer the best relative value to investors? With government and corporate bond yields at all-time lows in most of Europe and equity dividend yields close to their long-term averages, European commercial property looks relatively well-priced... 8th October 2015 · 30 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Is the Greek crisis finally over? This Focus takes a detailed look at the outlook for Greece after the implementation of its third bailout and concludes that the country’s six-year crisis is far from over. Indeed, a Grexit is still... 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Aug.) & Final PMIs (Sep.) August’s euro-zone retail sales data suggest that the consumer recovery remained on track. And the final PMIs point to quarterly GDP growth remaining at around 0.4% in Q3. But September’s monthly fall... 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Current account adjustments not just cyclical The improvement in most peripheral countries’ current account positions since the financial crisis should not be fully reversed as their economies recover. However, if and when Greece returns to... 1st October 2015 · 1 min read
