Europe Economic Outlook Deflation dangers persist The recovery in the European economy appears to have picked up a bit of speed in the early months of 2014. The euro-zone now looks set to expand by 1% or more this year, a significant improvement on... 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB to follow words with actions before long Although President Draghi adopted a softer tone at last week’s interest rate press conference, the ECB decided to once again keep its powder dry. However, given the weak recovery and subdued inflation... 7th April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack US rebounds but China and Japan slowing The global economy is healing, but the pace of recovery differs markedly between countries. The US is now rebounding from its weather-induced slowdown and the euro-zone is steadily gaining momentum... 4th April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What do jobs data imply for the peripheral occupier markets? Since the crisis, employment in the periphery has underperformed the euro-zone average. But recent data does at least show some positives for Portugal. And while sustained employment growth in Spain... 4th April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB edging towards more action Although the ECB left policy on hold again today, President Draghi turned his dovish rhetoric up a further notch. With the economic recovery set to remain too weak to diminish the threat of deflation... 3rd April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Feb.) & Final PMIs (Mar.) February’s retail sales data offered hope that the euro-zone’s recovery is slowly broadening to households, while the final PMIs suggest that the recovery may have strengthened in Q1. 3rd April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Euro-zone recovery gradually building momentum The key euro-zone surveys of activity and sentiment continued to pick up in Q1, particularly in the periphery, suggesting that GDP growth in the region as a whole may have been a bit stronger than in... 2nd April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Mar.) Recently published data show that Italy and Spain made little headway in strengthening their fiscal positions in 2013, but Portugal exceeded its targets. More encouragingly, most of the periphery... 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Feb.) & Final Manu. PMI (Mar.) February’s euro-zone labour market figures underlined the fact that the economic recovery is still far too weak to make a significant dent in the high level of unemployment across the currency union. 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Gulf between US & German bond yields looks set to widen The spread between the yields of 10-year US and German government bonds is close to the largest it has been since the start of EMU. But we think the spread will continue to grow. With this in mind, we... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Mar.) March’s fall in euro-zone consumer price inflation probably partly reflected temporary factors relating to the timing of Easter. But the weakness of inflation suggests that the ECB may need to take... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Lacklustre Q1 growth to keep the pressure on the ECB Survey data for March provided an insight into how the euro-zone fared over Q1. While they suggested that the recovery probably gained a little momentum in the first quarter, they remain consistent... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Mar.) The rise in the European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in March provides another indication that the euro-zone economic recovery has built up a little momentum in the early months of... 28th March 2014 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB Watch - More policy action still ahead Developments over the last month have not clearly met either of the ECB’s two “contingencies” for further policy action. Nonetheless, the ongoing danger of deflation and dovish signals from several... 27th March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) February’s weak euro-zone monetary data will add to pressure on the ECB to ease monetary policy further in the coming months. 27th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Do capital flows explain the euro's strength? Balance of payments data suggest that capital inflows from abroad may have helped to push up the value of the euro. But if the current account surplus shrinks and the appetite for euro-zone financial... 26th March 2014 · 1 min read
