Europe Economics Update Would OMTs contain post-Grexit contagion? If a Greek exit from the euro-zone resulted in substantial market turmoil, the ECB would probably respond by unleashing its fabled OMTs. This is a potentially powerful tool to limit contagion. But... 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB may have to play both villain and hero The ECB’s Governing Council may have to playboth villain and hero over the coming week, effectively forcing Greece out of the euro-zone bypulling the plug on Greek banks’ life support and then... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Time to let Greece go? While Greece and its creditors look set to make one last attempt to reach an agreement, it might very soon be time to accept the inevitable and refocus efforts on how best to manage the country’s exit... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Nai or Oxi? Sunday’s Greek referendum result looks likely to be very close. But regardless of whether the outcome is Nai or Oxi, unless any resulting deal includes a substantial form of debt relief, the crisis... 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (May) & Final PMIs (Jun.) Although euro-zone retail sales only rose slightly in May, the outlook for consumer spending is bright. And the rise in June’s composite PMI suggested that the wider recovery was sustained in Q2... 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update For how long will low oil prices boost spending growth? The declines in oil prices since last summer might add as much as 1 percentage point to euro-zone consumer spending growth this year. However, unless oil prices fall further, which we do not expect... 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Even a Yes vote might not prevent a Grexit A Yes vote in Sunday’s Greek referendum, if it goes ahead, will not guarantee the country’s futureinside the euro-zone. Not only is it unclear just what deal such an outcome would lead to, but... 30th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update How might property markets respond if and when Grexit occurs? Today's PMI readings were slightly weaker than expected but do not change the general picture, which is that growth is recovering on the back of both an improvement in external demand and a policy... 30th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jun.) & Unemployment (May) The renewed decline in euro-zone HICP inflation in June highlighted that the ECB still has a lot of work to do to hit its inflation target in the medium term. 30th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Jun) The European Commission’s monthly Business and Consumer Survey for Junesuggested that the euro-zone recovery may have gained some pace in Q2. But thesurvey was carried out before last weekend’s... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greferendum – key questions & answers The Greek Government’s decision to call a referendum has elevated the crisis to a higher level. Whilea deal may yet come together, a near-term Grexit now seems more likely than not. This... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) May’s euro-zone monetary data were consistent with continued economic recovery.But with the probability of a Greek default and Grexit building by the day, the riskof a full-blown banking crisis in the... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Market volatility won’t throw QE off track There is no sign that the ECB has begun to “front-load” its asset purchases ahead of the summer lull in liquidity, despite suggestions by officials that it would do so. But the Bank will nonetheless... 25th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Grexit might be unavoidable, but it need not be a crisis In 2012, Capital Economics won the Wolfson Prize for our submission on how the exit from the eurozone of a small country like Greece might best be managed. Given the still significant risk that... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jun.) Amid the turmoil in Greece, June’s rise in the euro-zone PMI is encouraging. But the survey also suggests that the euro-zone recovery did not pick up much steam in Q2 and that there are clear risks to... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China & Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jun.) Early business survey evidence for June supports our relatively positive view on the outlook for China’s commodity demand, especially metals. The latest euro-zone data are encouraging too, although we... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
