Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) March’s euro-zone monetary data suggest that economic growth might pick up in the coming months. But the continued wrangling over Greece’s fiscal situation presents a significant risk to the country’s... 29th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Why are the markets still so relaxed about a Grexit? Rising expectations of a Greek exit from the euro-zone are still not prompting contagion effects or more general concerns about the euro-zone economy. We fear that the markets are too relaxed. 28th April 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China & Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Apr.) The continued deterioration in China’s manufacturing sector signalled by early business surveys for April is disappointing, but the prices of key industrial metals have already factored in a lot of... 23rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Apr.) April’s fall in the euro-zone composite PMI suggested that fears over Greece might already be starting to dampen economic growth in the region, offsetting any boost from loose monetary policy and the... 23rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Feb.) February’s euro-zone trade data suggest that the weakness of the euro is still only providing a small boost to the region’s exports. 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Feb.) February’s strong rise in euro-zone industrial production suggested that industry is starting to feel the benefits of a weaker euro and a lower oil price. 14th April 2015 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB to downplay early taper talk The ECB’s quantitative easing programme has got off to a solid start with the Bank buying the planned quantity of assets and financial markets responding positively. And with the recovery seeming to... 9th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is deflation good for the euro-zone after all? The recent bout of negative inflation in the euro-zone appears to have contributed to a modest upturn in economic growth. But it would be premature to conclude that deflation will prove to be a good... 9th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Recovery prospects clouded by Greece Recent indicators have brought signs of a renewed recovery in the euro-zone economy, reflecting the beneficial effects of lower oil prices and the decline in the euro exchange rate. But the picture... 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Feb.) February’s euro-zone retail sales data showed that while the consumer recovery remained fairly strong, it did not pick up further pace. 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update ECB trumps Bank of Japan? Although the asset purchase programme announced by the ECB this year is smaller than that announced by the Bank of Japan in 2013, the initial response of financial markets has, if anything, been... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greece & the ECB both have a lot more work to do The more detailed list of proposed reforms submitted by Greece last week potentially provided the basis for an agreement that will allow it to meet its near-term financial obligations. But the tussles... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Mar.) Recently published data show that Spain, Portugal and France made headway in reducing their general government deficits in 2014. But progress among the peripheral countries at the start of 2015 has... 2nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the ECB’s QE provide more fuel for euro-zone bonds? While the anticipation and launch of looser unconventional monetary policy in the euro-zone appears to have depressed the yields of bonds issued by the region’s more troubled governments, the boost... 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Markets still under-pricing “Grexit” risks The latest surveys continue to suggest that only a minority of investors expect Greece to leave the euro within the next twelve months. Admittedly, the proportion is still significant, which shows... 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Mar.) & Unemployment (Feb.) The latest data on euro-zone inflation and unemployment did not lift the threat of a prolonged period of deflation in the currency union. 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
