Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Sep.) September’s dip in the euro-zone composite PMI left it pointing to steady GDP growth in Q3. But the uncertain global environment and fading boosts from thelower oil price and weaker euro look set to... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Brexit wouldn't spell disaster for UK exports Over the next few weeks, we will be publishing a series of pieces of work looking at the impact that leaving the EU would have on the UK economy, culminating in a presentation at our annual conference... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Jul.) & Employment (Q2) The euro-zone’s goods trade surplus rose to a record high in July, adding to the evidence that the economy got off to a good start in Q3. But we suspect that the trade surplus will fall in the second... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Jul.) July’s rise in industrial production merely offset the declines in the previous two months, so is not the beginning of a stronger upward trend in the sector. The survey evidence points to fairly... 14th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will Fed lift-off hit or help the euro-zone? We don’t expect the prospect of higher US interest rates to hit the euro-zone too hard. But the ECB should not take any chances and certainly should not rely on higher US interest rates to lower the... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How might the ECB expand QE? It looks increasingly likely that the ECB will expand its asset purchase programme, possibly even as soon as next month. We think that the Bank will step up the pace of purchases, perhaps to €80bn per... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP Breakdown (Q2) Revisions to euro-zone GDP showed that the economy was slightly stronger in the first half of the year than previously thought. However, with inflation likely to fall and growth remain sluggish, we... 8th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Draghi paves way for more QE While the European Central Bank (ECB) left its key policy instruments unchanged today, changes to its bond purchase limits and President Mario Draghi’s dovish signals appeared to pave the way for an... 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Jul.) & Final PMIs (Aug.) The rise in euro-zone retail sales in July more than offset the decline in June and suggests that the consumer recovery remains on track. Meanwhile, the final PMIs highlighted the continued poor... 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Deflation dangers still lingering While the crisis in Greece appears to have receded at least temporarily, the euro-zone still faces serious challenges in the form of weak growth and persistent deflation risks. As the Chart below... 2nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Aug.) The euro-zone’s peripheral economies appear to have strengthened their fiscal positions further at the start of Q3. But this year’s budget targets still look elusive for most. Greece, in particular... 1st September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Jul.) & Final Mfg PMI (Aug.) The latest euro-zone unemployment data offered hope that the slow recovery in the region’s labour market has not gone into reverse. But the bigger picture is that unemployment remains too high to... 1st September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Aug.) August’s EC business and consumer survey provides some reassurance that the eurozone’s economic recovery has continued in Q3, despite the turmoil in global stock markets this month. But the pace of... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Euro’s rise puts Draghi under pressure again The rise in the euro exchange rate has put the onus on the ECB to maintain and perhaps increase monetary policy support. We doubt that the Bank will announce any policy changes following its meeting... 27th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) July’s euro-zone monetary data suggest that Q2’s slowdown in GDP growth is not the beginning of a more substantial downturn. Nevertheless, growth is likely to remain sluggish. And the problems in... 27th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the euro’s rise stall the recovery? Agriculture accounts for 2% of GDP while the livestock sector is probably 1% or less. Accordingly, a 10% reduction in livestock output would reduce GDP by 0.1% for as long as it lasts. This accords... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
