Europe Commercial Property Outlook Property's stronger start to the year will fade The euro-zone recession shows few signs of easing and we have yet to see its full impact on European property values. At the aggregate level, capital values have been supported by further small falls... 23rd May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (May) May’s euro-zone PMI survey adds to the recent run of slightly more encouraging news from the region, but there is little sign that the region is about to emerge from recession. 23rd May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Current account data not as encouraging as it seems At face value, the ongoing improvement in the euro-zone’s current account position, which has been to a large part down to developments in the peripheral economies, is a sign that the structural... 22nd May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the equity rally boost household spending? We doubt that the recent equity market rally, combined with the ongoing downward trend in CPI inflation, will prompt a sustained recovery in euro-zone household spending. Indeed, in the periphery... 21st May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is the euro-zone crisis really over? The improvement in market sentiment towards the euro-zone has not been matched by a material change in the troubled countries’ economic and fiscal outlooks. As such, the crisis is not over. 20th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is monetary policy too loose for Germany? This Update addresses the question of whether monetary policy is now too loose for Germany and, if so, what can be done about it? While there are various policies that could be adopted at the national... 16th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Mar.) & Final CPI (Apr.) While March’s euro-zone trade data are certainly encouraging, we remain sceptical that the sector can single-handedly drag the euro-zone and, in particular, the peripheral economies out of recession. 16th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1) Q1’s flash euro-zone GDP estimate confirmed that while the euro-zone economy performed rather better in Q1 than Q4, it remained in recession. 15th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What negative rates would mean for euro-zone neighbours As a result of ultra-loose monetary policy in major economies, central banks in smaller countries such as Switzerland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark are struggling to deal with both rising private debt... 14th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (May) & Euro-zone Industrial Prod. (Mar.) May’s German ZEW survey and March’s euro-zone industrial production numbers made encouraging reading, but do not alter our view that the euro-zone remains in recession. 14th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Germany's role in a solution to the euro-zone debt crisis This Update summarises views expressed by Capital Economics’ Jennifer McKeown in a panel discussion at the Euromoney “Germany Conference” in Berlin on 24th and 25th April. 13th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can the ECB make negative rates work? The ECB appears to have concluded that it can limit the adverse side-effects of imposing negative interest rates on commercial banks’ deposits. But even if this is the case, negative rates are not... 8th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB rate cut will be of limited use The ECB’s widely anticipated interest rate cut should provide troubled banks in the region’s periphery with some much-needed support. But it will not be enough to drag the euro-zone out of recession... 2nd May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Apr.) In 2012, most of the peripheral economies made decent inroads into their budget deficits. But the fiscal consolidation process is far from over. 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Apr.) & Unemployment (Mar.) April’s drop in euro-zone inflation and the further rise in unemployment in March have added to the pressure on the ECB to provide more policy support. 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Would deflation lead the periphery into a debt trap? If the peripheral euro-zone economies regained competitiveness via outright deflation, their public and private sector debt levels would spiral higher as a share of GDP, prompting disaster. 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
