Europe Economics Update A parallel currency is not the solution for Greece The idea that Greece could introduce a parallel domestic currency to improve its competitiveness while still honouring its international debts is not the solution to the country’s problems. Indeed, if... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update “Grexit” and what it might mean for EMs The impact on EMs of a Greek exit from the euro-zone would depend on the extent to which policymakers in Europe were able to limit the wider financial fallout. A “managed” exit would create... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Feb.) February’s small rise in the euro-zone composite PMI provided some reassurance that the region’s recovery may have continued in the first quarter of 2015 despite the ongoing crisis in Greece. 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What would be the global fallout if Greece left the euro? If Greece is forced out of the single currency there would clearly be major political and economic implications for the euro-zone itself, and we suspect there would initially be turmoil in global... 19th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Growing risk of Greek exit under-priced in global markets Although the latest wranglings over Greece’s short-term financing needs have so far elicited little response from markets outside Greece, this calm may not last. As the German rebuff of Greece’s... 19th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB highlights limits to its support The first ever publication of ECB minutes confirmed that support for the new QE programme was not unanimous, suggesting that its scale will remain limited. The account, together with the Bank’s... 19th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What hope of a Greek deal now? As negotiations over Greece’s bailout stalled last night, the two sides seemed as far apart as ever. A deal still seems possible, but it might require a time-consuming Greek referendum. And in the... 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Dec.) The latest euro-zone trade data revealed that exporters are still not fully benefiting from the depreciation of the euro. 16th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Time is running out for Greece The failure of the Eurogroup last week to agree even on steps for further discussions on Greece does not bode well for the emergence of a full solution at Monday’s meeting. This could prompt nerves... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Record-breaking quarter for euro-zone investment Euro-zone commercial property investment volumes reached a record high in the fourth quarter of 2014. Such strong investment flows meant that competition for assets was strong, which in turn led to... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4 Prov.) Q4’s slight pick-up in euro-zone GDP growth suggests that the benefits of a falling oil price and a weaker euro are offsetting the effects of the Greek crisis for now. But growth is too weak to reduce... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How would Greece leave the euro? With euro-zone leaders struggling to reach a workable solution to Greece’s debt problems, the chances of a Greek exit from the currency union have risen. In 2012, Capital Economics won the Wolfson... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Dec.) December’s disappointing stagnation of euro-zone industrial production confirmed that the region’s economy remains far too weak to ward off the threat of deflation. 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What to make of the latest currency moves in Central Europe After a year of stability, Central Europe’s currency markets sprung back to life over the past month as the ECB unveiled a QE programme and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) decided to scrap its exchange... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is deflation here to stay this time? The latest bout of deflation in the euro-zone looks set to last rather longer than the brief period of falling prices seen back in 2009. With vast amounts of slack in the economy and inflation... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Grexit risks rising Several developments last week arguably brought Greece closer to exiting the euro-zone than it has ever been. While the Government appeared to give ground on its demands for debt restructuring, its... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
