Europe Economics Update Happy Birthday OMTs – it could be downhill from here The ECB’s OMT programme has had a successful first year. But there are still reasons to doubt that it has solved the euro-zone crisis and the programme’s effects could fade in the coming months. 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Draghi won't firm up his guidance While the recent improvement in the euro-zone’s economic prospects suggests that a further cut in interest rates is unlikely in the near future, President Draghi will no doubt repeat the relatively... 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) The continued weakness of the euro-zone monetary data in July suggests that the pick-up in the real economy rests on fragile foundations. 28th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone recovery could be jobless for some time The euro-zone’s nascent recovery is unlikely to prompt a significant improvement in labour market conditions for quite some time. This suggests that wage growth and consumer spending will remain... 27th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Germany to fund more than a third Greek bail-out? German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble’s acknowledgement last week that Greece needs more aid seemed like a statement of the obvious. Encouragingly, however the size of any new bail-out will be... 26th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Aug.) August’s flash euro-zone PMIs provided further evidence that the currency union’s economy continued to expand in the third quarter, albeit at a pretty modest pace. 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is the ECB’s forward guidance working? The limited rise in euro-zone market interest rates might suggest that the ECB’s forward guidance is working. But it would be premature to conclude that the central bank can continue to protect the... 21st August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Return to growth won’t eliminate euro-zone default risks The recent return of economic growth in the euro-zone does not eradicate the risk that some of the peripheral economies will undertake some form of sovereign default. 20th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Recession over, but crisis unresolved While the second quarter’s 0.3% expansion in euro-zone GDP may partly have reflected temporary factors, there seems little reason to doubt that the region’s record-long recession is finally at an end... 19th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is the recovery in the euro-zone business surveys the real deal? The rise in euro-zone GDP in Q2, coupled with the improvements in the key business surveys, confirms that a turning point in the business cycle has been reached. But these developments do not... 15th August 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for euro-zone equities? Today’s euro-zone GDP data provided a further small boost to the region’s stock markets, which have been enjoying something of a revival in the second half of 2013. However, the economic outlook in... 14th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2) The return to modest rates of economic growth in the euro-zone as a whole won’t address the deep-seated economic and fiscal problems of the peripheral countries. 14th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Prod. (Jun.) & German ZEW Survey (Aug.) June’s euro-zone industrial production data and August’s German ZEW survey provide further signs that the euro-zone has emerged from recession. 13th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Industrial upturn has weak foundations The national industrial production figures for June provided further evidence that euro-zone GDP might have expanded in Q2. Nonetheless, a closer look at the data suggests that the figures are perhaps... 9th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Jun.) June’s German industrial production data point to a healthy rise in GDP in Q2 and the sector could continue to build up steam in the near term. 7th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Jul.) & Retail Sales (Jun.) July’s final PMI surveys improved the chances that the euro-zone is about to move out of recession. But the continued weakness of consumer activity adds to the doubts over the likely strength and... 5th August 2013 · 1 min read
