Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Nov.) & Retail Sales (Oct.) November’s final composite PMI was revised down from the flash estimate and provided more evidence that the euro-zone economy has remained weak in Q4. 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Nov.) All peripheral economies narrowed their budget deficits in October, but Portugal is expected to miss its target for 2014 as a whole. 2nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will lower oil prices do the ECB’s job for it? The recent fall in oil prices will have some modest positive effects on the euro-zone economy. But it does not preclude the need for the European Central Bank (ECB) to provide more policy support. 2nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch ECB, BoJ and People’s Bank to loosen policy further Three of the world’s most powerful central banks have loosened monetary policy in some form in the past few weeks and they all look likely to do more next year, particularly given the recent slump in... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update ECB to join Bank of Japan in full-blown QE Although the Fed ended its asset purchases in October, and is set to start raising policy rates in the coming months, global monetary conditions will remain ultra-loose as the ECB and BoJ undertake... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Has the euro fallen far enough? The fall in the euro since the spring looks likely to have at least some upward effect on both the growth of euro-zone exports and the level of euro-zone consumer price inflation. But the ECB should... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Nov.) & Unemployment (Oct.) The latest euro-zone consumer prices and unemployment figures gave the ECB yet another nudge to take urgent further action to revive the recovery and tackle the threat of deflation. 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
ECB Watch QE’s coming, probably in January It seems clear that the ECB will soon embark on a full-blown quantitative easing programme incorporating sovereign debt purchases. The key questions now are when and how big? While we think that the... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) October’s euro-zone monetary data highlighted the sluggish nature of the recovery in the region’s banking sector and will help to maintain the pressure on the ECB to provide further stimulus. 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Nov.) November’s EC business and consumer survey did nothing to relieve the pressure on the European Central Bank to provide more policy support to the euro-zone economy in the form of a full-blown... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What will ECB QE do to core euro-zone bond yields? An ECB quantitative easing (QE) programme will probably not be decisive enough to prompt a rise in inflation expectations like that which lifted US Treasury yields during the Fed’s bouts of QE... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB divisions point to half-hearted QE The objections of German Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann to the prospect of an ECB quantitative easing programme including government bond purchases are unlikely to prevent such a programme being... 21st November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Juncker’s investment plan is unlikely to amount to much EC President Jean-Claude Juncker’s proposal for a €300bn EU investment programme will probably do little more than shift existing funds around the economy with little or no positive impact on growth. 21st November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update PMIs point to subdued commodity demand Falls in the flash PMIs for China and the euro-zone do not bode well for commodity prices. Activity indicators were weak in both regions, suggesting downward pressure on the prices of industrial... 20th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Nov.) November’s fall in the euro-zone composite PMI was a serious blow to hopes that the recovery would resume towards the end of the year. 20th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Will ECB or SNB purchases boost the gold price? Hopes that the European Central Bank (ECB) will include gold on the list of assets to be purchased as part of a programme of full-blown quantitative easing (QE) will almost certainly be disappointed... 19th November 2014 · 1 min read
