Europe Economics Update How vulnerable is the ECB to a Greek default? The ECB’s exposure to Greece is not huge and ultimately lies with the euro-zone governments that would have to recapitalise it. But a Greek default to the ECB would be a serious blow to the Bank’s... 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Has the ECB saved the euro-zone again? After saving the day with its pledge to “do whatever it takes” in 2012, the ECB has arguably now brought on a recovery with its quantitative easing programme. But we expect the policy’s effects to... 27th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB minutes reaffirm intention to see QE through The minutes (or “account”) of the ECB’s monetary policy meeting on 14th and 15th April underscored the message already given by Mario Draghi and colleagues, in the press conference after the meeting... 21st May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (May) May’s flash euro-zone PMI survey echoed the message from other recent business surveys that growth in the currency union appears to have slowed again after the slight pick-up seen earlier in the year... 21st May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Should the ECB be happy with the first 10 weeks of QE? The ECB Governing Council has a right to be cautiously optimistic about the first ten weeks of QE. But we share its view that this does not mean that QE should end early. On the contrary, we think... 19th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Mar.) & Consumer Prices (Apr.) March’s euro-zone trade data suggest that the weakness of the euro has still had little impact on net exports, and therefore provided only modest support to the recovery. 19th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Renewed recession adds to Greece’s woes The Greek crisis has intensified, with last week’s Eurogroup meeting offering little hope of near-term financial support and the Government resorting to reserves held at the IMF to make a loan... 15th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack All-property yield compression picks up pace in Q1 The pace of euro-zone all-property yield compression picked up in Q1, driven mostly by the office and industrial sectors. At the all-property level euro-zone rental values rose by 1.2%q/q, but that... 14th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1 Prov.) Q1’s euro-zone GDP figures confirmed that the currency union outgrew both the US and UK in the first quarter. But with signs that the Greek crisis is starting to constrain the recovery, the euro-zone... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Market gyrations could threaten recovery The sharp rise in euro-zone bond yields and further appreciation of the euro last week might look like a response to the recent improvement in the euro-zone’s economic performance. But the renewed... 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for US and euro-zone government bonds? While government bonds in the US and the euro-zone have both been rattled by a rebound in the price of oil, we think other factors will start to play a more important role in determining their fate. 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone office rental values to show further steady growth Amidst a slowly improving economic backdrop, prime euro-zone office rents have risen in recent quarters. We expect further gradual increases in occupier demand, coupled with constrained supply, to... 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Mar.) & Final PMIs (Apr.) March’s euro-zone retail sales data suggested that overall household spending registered a fairly strong increase in Q1. But the decline in April’s composite PMI implied that the economy might have... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Apr.) The latest euro-zone fiscal data showed that only Italy and Ireland made any improvement in their budgetary positions in Q1. And the latest data from Greece are far from encouraging. 1st May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Apr.) & Unemployment (Mar.) While the recent bout of falling prices in the euro-zone ended in April, the threat of deflation in the currency union has certainly not lifted altogether. 30th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Apr.) The European Commission’s monthly Business and Consumer survey for April echoed the message from some other recent surveys that the crisis in Greece might be starting to constrain the euro-zone... 29th April 2015 · 1 min read
