Global Markets Update Weaker euro should help euro-zone equities to outperform One development that is likely to cap future rises in long-term government bond yields in some of the major advanced economies is the persistence of exceptionally loose monetary policy. But this is... 26th February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Feb 14.) The smaller euro-zone peripheral economies made good fiscal progress last year, but the adjustment process is by no means over yet. Italy and Spain fared less well. As a result, this year, they may... 26th February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update European elections may hinder national reform efforts A surge in support for euro-sceptic parties at the European Parliament elections in May will probably have little direct impact on the institution itself. But rising support for populist parties may... 24th February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Slow euro-zone recovery leaves deflation threat lurking The euro-zone’s recovery appears to have continued at the beginning of 2014. But the recovery is struggling to gather enough pace to banish the deflationary menace facing the region. 24th February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Feb.) February’s euro-zone PMIs suggest that the region’s recovery is struggling to gather pace. This will keep pressure on the ECB to loosen policy further. 20th February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Banking union: a step rather than a leap forward The euro-zone’s proposed banking union will help to strengthen the region’s financial system. But the benefits will be slow to feed into the real economy. And the current framework for banking union... 18th February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will the recent falls in euro-zone yields continue this year? Broad-based economic growth across the euro-zone in Q4 last year clearly helps to explain the recent widespread falls in property yields. We doubt that GDP growth across the region will suddenly surge... 17th February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly GDP figures don't preclude the need for ECB action Q4’s euro-zone GDP figures confirmed that the currency union’s economic situation improved marginally at the end of last year, but the ECB will need to take further action to ensure that the recovery... 17th February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4) The modest growth of the euro-zone economy in Q4 will have done little to address the deep-seated problems of the peripheral countries or to head off the dangers of deflation across the currency union... 14th February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Dec.) December’s weak industrial production figures highlight that the euro-zone’s industrial recovery remains fragile. 12th February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly The ECB is too sanguine about monetary problems The euro-zone’s difficult monetary conditions will add to the disinflationary pressures in the region. Admittedly, Mario Draghi suggested last week that temporary factors such as the AQR were... 10th February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB will succumb to pressure for more action soon While the European Central Bank (ECB) disappointed hopes of more policy support today, the growing risk of deflation and dovish signals from President Mario Draghi suggest that further action will... 6th February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Brighter signs don't preclude need for more policy action Despite the recent bout of disappointing global economic news and financial market turbulence, economic indicators like the PMI suggest that the euro-zone’s fragile recovery gained a bit of a momentum... 5th February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Dec.) & Composite PMI (Jan.) Whilst December’s retail sales data suggested that consumers showed little festive cheer, January’s final composite PMI survey indicated that the wider euro-zone recovery may have gained a little... 5th February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Deflation dangers are greater this time While a bout of deflation in the euro-zone back in 2009 proved to be short-lived and harmless, there are reasons why a new episode of falling prices would be longer-lasting and more damaging. 4th February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly How will market volatility threaten the euro-zone? We doubt that the recent financial market sell-off in parts of the emerging world will be a catalyst for a renewed intensification of the euro-zone crisis. But the events underline the potential... 3rd February 2014 · 1 min read
