Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Dec.), Unemp. & Retail Sales (Nov.) December’s EC Business and Consumer Survey added to evidence that euro-zone GDP growth accelerated in Q4, but the consumer recovery seems to be losing pace. 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Dec.) & Producer Prices (Nov.) The small rise in the euro-zone’s Composite PMI for December suggested that the region’s recovery may have gained a little pace in the final quarter of 2015. But GDP growth is still too slow to... 6th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack A year of zero inflation December’s euro-zone consumer price inflation rate of +0.2% left an average inflation rate for 2015 as a whole of zero – the lowest rate since the single currency was formed. Headline inflation will... 5th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Dec.) December’s weaker-than-expected euro-zone consumer prices figures supported our view that bolder ECB policy action will ultimately be needed to bring inflation back to target on a sustained basis. 5th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI & Euro-zone Final Man. PMI (Dec.) December’s German CPI data confirm that the relative strength of the economy is exerting no upward pressure on inflation and support our view that the ECB will need to do more to hit its inflation... 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What do the latest office jobs data say about rental prospects in 2016? The latest employment data show that office employment is far outpacing total jobs growth in most euro-zone economies. And, even in economies such as Germany and France, where office jobs growth has... 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone employment recovery masks national divergence Employment in the euro-zone is expanding at a healthy pace and survey data point to a positive outlook. But this hides a very mixed story amongst different countries, and the overall picture is... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the Fed’s lift-off cause a euro-zone nose-dive? There are reasons to think that the advent of tighter monetary policy in the US will not have a materially negative impact on the currency union. But there is no room for euro-zone policymakers to be... 16th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Oct.) & Final CPI (Nov.) October’s euro-zone goods trade data revealed a further slowdown in export growth, adding to the evidence that the boost from the weaker euro is fading. We suspect that the trade surplus will narrow... 16th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Dec.) December’s small fall in the euro-zone Composite PMI left it still pointing to steady but modest growth in the region. But the Paris attacks have taken a toll on France, leaving the economy close to... 16th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Oct.) October’s rise in euro-zone industrial production provides an early indication that the sector will have had a solid Q4, adding to evidence that the region’s recovery may have regained some pace at... 14th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the Fed & oil prices bail out the ECB? The recent further fall in oil prices and imminent commencement of monetary tightening in the US are unlikely to compensate for the ECB’s disappointingly timid action at last week’s policy meeting. 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can the euro-zone weather the global headwinds? The euro-zone has proved relatively resilient in the face of global headwinds, but the region still has to contend with significant domestic problems. And with fiscal policy unlikely to provide a big... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP Breakdown (Q3) The second estimate of euro-zone GDP in Q3 revealed that the slowdown in growth was driven by weaker net exports. As the boost to consumer spending growth from lower oil prices fades, we think that... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Mariodona shoots wide The ECB’s failure to live up to its own hype at December’s Governing Council meeting looks likely to have at least some negative consequences, both on the economic outlook via the market response and... 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Can prime retail rental values continue to rise in the euro-zone? Euro-zone retail sales are likely to remain fairly weak in the next couple of years. However, due to structural changes in the retail sector, expansionary retailers will continue to compete to secure... 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
