Global Markets Update ECB falls well short of Bank of Japan’s bold easing The muted market responses to the ECB’s policy announcements today are not necessarily a sign of failure: equity prices, bond yields and the euro itself all edged a little further in the desired... 5th June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Apr.) & Ger. Factory Orders (Apr.) April’s retail sales data suggested that euro-zone consumers may be beginning to return to the high-street, although so far this seems to have come at the expense of non-retail spending. 5th June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Deflation risks still mounting May’s fall in euro-zone HICP inflation from 0.7% to 0.5% left it at its joint weakest rate since October 2009 and far beneath the ECB’s 2% price stability ceiling. There is no sign of inflationary... 4th June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP Breakdown (Q1), Final PMI (May) & PPI (Apr.) The latest batch of data on the euro-zone maintained the strong pressure on the ECB to provide further policy stimulus at tomorrow’s Governing Council meeting. 4th June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is the euro-zone turning Japanese? There is a real and growing danger that the euro-zone enters a Japanese-style bout of flat or falling prices. But even a prolonged period of low positive inflation would seriously hamper the... 3rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (May) & Unemployment (Apr.) May’s fall in euro-zone inflation and the still high level of unemployment in April will add to the pressure on the ECB to provide more policy support in order to address the growing risks of... 3rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (May) Although progress is still slow, the latest euro-zone fiscal data provided more evidence that peripheral governments are gradually strengthening their fiscal positions. 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Can the ECB weaken the euro? While the ECB looks certain to implement further policy action at this week’s Governing Council meeting – probably in the form of an interest rate cut and measures to stimulate bank lending – this... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Rate cut and lending incentives unlikely to be enough A small cut in the ECB’s main refinancing rate seems like a done deal this month and is likely to be accompanied by a reduction in the deposit rate to below zero. The Bank also seems set to offer more... 29th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (May) The renewed rise in the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) suggests that the euro-zone recovery might gather a little pace in Q2. But growth will probably remain too weak to ward off deflationary... 28th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) April’s euro-zone monetary data highlighted the fragile nature of the region’s banks and should spur the ECB to ease policy further at its meeting next week. 28th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Weak euro-zone recovery will sustain populist anger Although populist parties will remain a minority at the European Parliament, the euro-zone’s weak recovery will sustain support for these parties, undermining national reform efforts across the region... 27th May 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What might QE in the euro-zone mean for bonds elsewhere? It has been suggested that one important factor keeping US Treasury yields low is the prospect of a further loosening of monetary policy by the ECB, including some form of explicit quantitative easing... 27th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly France's recovery to be snail-paced France’s economy hasn’t picked up much steam since it stagnated in Q1. Although the outlook for the second half of the year is a little brighter, the recovery will remain pretty weak. The resulting... 26th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Peripheral markets move into the spotlight We anticipate that commercial property markets in the euro-zone will deliver modest gains over the remainder of this year and next as the underperformance of many markets in the region’s peripheral... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB lending scheme would have serious limitations The ECB seems increasingly likely to unveil a new scheme to boost lending to the private sector, perhaps as soon as its June policy meeting. We would welcome such a scheme, but its effectiveness will... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
