Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Mar.) & Final PMIs (Apr.) March’s euro-zone retail sales data appear to confirm that strong consumer spending supported growth in Q1, but we doubt that this will be sustained. Indeed, April’s Composite PMI points to a slight... 4th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone’s strong start won’t be sustained Q1’s surprisingly strong gain in euro-zone GDP provided a solid start to the year. But we suspect that the figures overstate the economy’s underlying pace of expansion and there is a clear risk of a... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Preliminary Flash GDP (Q1) & Flash CPI (Apr.) The euro-zone’s new earlier (“preliminary flash”) estimate of GDP confirmed the message from country data that the economy regained some pace in Q1 after the slowdown in H2 last year. But growth is... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Apr.) April’s rise in euro-zone business and consumer confidence does not change the bigger picture that growth in the euro-zone appears to be slowing. 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) March’s euro-zone monetary data suggest that economic growth remains fairly slow . While the ECB has since expanded its stimulus measures, we doubt that this will boost money and lending growth... 27th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will bank worries prevent further ECB rate cuts? 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Apr.) The small fall in April’s euro-zone PMI suggests that the weakening of the region’s activity surveys this year has been due to more than just concerns about overseas demand, which have eased recently... 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Draghi dovish, but ECB nearing its limits President Draghi struck a dovish tone following the ECB’s April policy meeting and stressed that the Governing Council was prepared to offer more policy support if needed. But while we expect the... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Draghi will be dovish, but ECB nearing its limits President Draghi will respond to German politicians’ recent criticism of the ECB’s ultra-loose policy at the meeting on 21st April by reiterating the Bank’s independence and stressing that more... 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Feb.) Despite February’s fall in industrial production, the sector looks likely to have had a fairly strong Q1. But survey evidence suggests that this is unlikely to be sustained. 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Feb.) & Final PMIs (Mar.) February’s euro-zone retail sales data point to strong consumer spending growth in Q1, but we doubt that this will be sustained. And the downward revision to March’s Composite PMI added to signs that... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment & Producer Prices (Feb.) February’s fall in euro-zone unemployment suggests that the labour market remains in reasonable health, but it is still too weak to generate any real inflationary pressure. 4th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly The euro-zone’s consumer recovery is slowing We have argued for some time that the consumer recovery, which was the main driver of growth in 2015, would slow this year. Last week brought further evidence that this process is underway. Declining... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update The ECB can’t afford to ignore the euro Recent weak activity and inflation data in the euro-zone have underlined the fact that the ECB cannot afford to simply sit back and allow the euro exchange rate to strengthen further. 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey, German HICP (Mar.) March’s falls in euro-zone business and consumer confidence support other evidence that the region’s slow recovery is losing pace. 30th March 2016 · 1 min read
