Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Feb.) February’s EC business and consumer survey suggests that political uncertainty has yet to damage euro-zone growth, which appears to have accelerated at the start of the year. 27th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) January’s euro-zone money and credit data point to steady economic growth. But they still suggest that core inflation will remain very weak. 27th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone PMIs consistent with stronger growth Last week’s PMI survey brought some more good news for the euro-zone economy. Accordingly, due to expectations of stronger growth in Q1, we have revised up our GDP forecast for 2017. While the survey... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Feb.) February’s sharp rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI to its highest point since April 2011 suggests that economic growth is picking up. But the survey’s price indices remain consistent with only weak... 21st February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly EC’s optimistic forecasts underestimate key risks In its latest economic forecasts published last week, the European Commission (EC) provided a fairly upbeat outlook for the euro-zone economy, expecting it to sustain its current pace of growth in... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Dec.) The euro-zone’s goods trade surplus widened somewhat in December, and, as a result, was virtually unchanged over Q4 as a whole. Looking ahead, while surveys suggest that export growth may pick up from... 15th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4), Ind. Prod. (Dec.) & German ZEW (Feb.) The second estimate of euro-zone Q4 GDP suggested that economic conditions at the end of last year were not quite as positive as previously estimated by Eurostat. And growth looks set to slow this... 14th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Yields plumb new lows on strong investor appetite Strong investor demand for euro-zone commercial property assets saw investment volumes hit a record high in the fourth quarter of last year. What’s more, competition for assets saw the all-property... 13th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Markets’ fears over Le Pen outweigh hopes for Macron Marine Le Pen’s announcement of her radical vision for France, particularly her intentions for an exit from the European Union and the euro, unnerved euro-zone financial markets last week. Her main... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can the ECB still do “whatever it takes”? Compared to 2012, when ECB President Draghi’s pledge to do “whatever it takes to preserve the euro” helped to bring the currency union back from the brink, the central bank’s ability to address euro... 9th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Which countries are most exposed to US protectionism? Germany, Belgium and particularly Ireland are the euro-zone members most exposed to US protectionism, while Portugal and the other peripheral euro-zone economies are the least exposed. 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Le Pen would face a bumpy and uncertain road to “Frexit” Marine Le Pen’s desire to take France out of the euro zone and the European Union if she is elected President in May faces political and legal hurdles. They are not insurmountable but the process is... 7th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jan.) Recent data have brought further signs that public finances in the euro-zone’s periphery are improving. But January saw the sharpest monthly rises in bond yields since mid-2015, probably caused by... 6th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone inflation is approaching a peak After reaching a 47-month high of 1.8% in January, euro-zone consumer price inflation is set to rise further in the coming months. While we expect headline inflation to surpass the ECB’s near-2%... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Dec.) & Final PMIs (Jan.) December’s retail sales data suggest that household spending contributed to the pick-up in euro-zone GDP growth in Q4. And January’s Composite PMI implies that the economy got off to a steady start in... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Steady labour market recovery continues Recent data on the euro-zone’s labour market have been encouraging. December’s decline in the unemployment rate to 9.6% left it at its lowest since May 2009. We expect the labour market recovery to... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
