Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Oct.) October’s rise in the EC measure of economic sentiment supports the message from the PMI that euro-zone growth accelerated towards the end of the year, albeit with continued divergence across... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) September’s euro-zone money and credit data continued the positive trend of recentmonths, consistent with a further steady expansion of the economy. Nevertheless,the data suggest that inflation will... 27th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Setbacks in EU-Canada trade deal bode ill for EU growth The latest setbacks in ratifying an EU-Canada trade deal have larger direct economic implications for Canada than for the EU. But the political deadlock bodes ill for future EU trade agreements which... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Oct.) The rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI to a ten-month high suggests that GDP growth may have picked up at the start of Q4. Nevertheless, there is a concerning divergence in conditions between the... 24th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB signals December QE extension President Draghi did not explicitly promise imminent policy action today. But he signalled that assetpurchases would not end abruptly. And as tapering has apparently still not been discussed, we... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Aug.) The euro-zone’s goods trade surplus rose in August, but it probably fell over Q3 as a whole. Looking ahead, we think that the trade surplus will narrow further this year as global demand growth... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Preparing for a December QE extension The ECB’s Governing Council is unlikely to unveil any policy changes at its forthcoming meeting on 20th October. But we expect it to prepare the ground for an extension of its Asset Purchase Programme... 13th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Aug.) The sharp rise in euro-zone industrial production in August suggests that the sectorprovided a positive, albeit small, boost to GDP growth in Q3. However, industry isunlikely to be able to prevent the... 12th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Sep.) There have been further signs of fiscal slippage in the peripheral economies this month. Germany is also planning a tax cut, but this does not mark a dramatic change in its fiscal stance. It intends... 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Sep.) & Unemployment (Aug.) Headline inflation in the euro-zone has started to pick up as the effects of previous falls in energy prices fade. But with a large amount of slack in the labour market, underlying price pressures... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Sep.) While the EC Business and Consumer Survey revealed a rise in sentiment in September, it still suggests that growth remains moderate and inflation expectations are weak. 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) August’s money and credit data suggest that the euro-zone economy has continued to grow at a decent pace in Q3. Nevertheless, the data suggest that inflation will remain well below the ECB’s target. 27th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Sep.) September’s fall in the euro-zone Composite PMI to a 20-month low implies that the already sluggish pace of expansion in the currency union lost further momentum at the end of the quarter. 23rd September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Low inflation won’t prevent a euro-zone slowdown Rising inflation may be less of a drag on the growth of euro-zone household spending than we had previously feared. But spending growth is still likely to slow, weakening a key support for overall... 19th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Still little inflationary pressure from the labour market Even when the euro-zone economy seems to have performed fairly well, it has still been unable to generate any inflationary pressure. Indeed, despite the reasonably strong rate of employment growth in... 16th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Extension of “Juncker plan” would not be a game-changer The “Juncker plan” has done little to boost investment. Accordingly, an extension of the scheme, proposed by President Juncker this morning, is unlikely to raise the euro-zone’s growth prospects. 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
