Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Jul.) The weakness of euro-zone industry in July suggests that industrial production will struggle to expand at all over Q3 and doesn’t bode well for GDP growth this quarter. 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Should we be worried about low inflation expectations? As euro-zone inflation picks up over the coming months, short-term inflation expectations should rise.But long-term expectations are less responsive to movements in current inflation and are likely... 13th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Aug.) Euro-zone government finances at the start of the third quarter of 2016 were much more of a mixed bag than the reasonably impressive figures from the first half of the year. Worryingly, the data... 5th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Aug.) & Unemployment (Jul.) The unchanged headline inflation rate in August highlights the fact that price pressures in the euro-zone remain weak and boosts the case for more monetary easing from the ECB. 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Office rental growth hits post crisis high All-property euro-zone rental values increased by 0.9% q/q in Q2, up from 0.4% q/q in Q1, as office rents rose at the fastest quarterly rate since the financial crisis. At the same time, yields fell... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Aug.) & Euro-zone Trade (Jun.) August’s German ZEW investor survey shows that sentiment has partly recovered from July’s Brexit-related decline, but it still points to a sharp slowdown in German GDP growth to come. 16th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2 Prov.) While Q2’s GDP growth was left unrevised at 0.3% in the second estimate, the softoutlook for both growth and inflation suggests that the ECB still has more work to do. 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (May) & Final PMIs (June) May’s euro-zone retail sales data point to a slowdown in consumer spending growth, and thus GDP growth, in Q2. And despite a small upward revision from the flash release, June’s Composite PMI also... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (June) Portugal and Greece seem have made some good headway towards repairing their public finances so far this year, in contrast with Italy and Spain which are both struggling to make any improvement... 4th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Brexit to hit France harder than Germany On the face of it, Germany seems more exposed than France to the effects of the UK leaving the EU. But in the time before the UK actually leaves the single market, France is more vulnerable than... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (May) & Manufacturing PMIs (June) May’s fall in euro-zone unemployment shows that the labour market is slowly recovering. Butemployment growth may already have peaked and there is still too much slack to generate any meaningful wage... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Market moves could destabilise the euro-zone periphery Recent market movements point to a downturn in euro-zone growth, particularly in the periphery. The ECB is likely to respond by loosening monetary policy, but it cannot solve all of the euro-zone’s... 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jun.) & German Retail Sales (May) June’s rise in euro-zone CPI inflation into positive territory might mark the start of an upward trend, but we see little hope of inflation hitting the ECB’s target over the medium term. 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (June) June’s fall in euro-zone business and consumer confidence suggests that the euro-zone economy was slowing even before the UK voted to leave the EU. 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Brexit vote weakens outlook for euro-zone growth While the UK’s vote for Brexit will have only a small direct effect on euro-zone trade this year and next, the indirect effects on confidence and financial markets may be more serious. We have... 27th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) May’s euro-zone monetary data suggest that economic growth remains fairly slow. While the ECB has since introduced new stimulus measures, including its latest TLTROs, we doubt that they will boost... 27th June 2016 · 1 min read
