Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) September’s euro-zone monetary data showed further signs of improvement but with lending growth still negative and, given the need for some of the weakest banks to raise further capital, the sector is... 27th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update PMIs provide little support to commodities prices While China’s headline flash PMI rose in October, falls in the activity and new orders components do not bode well for commodities prices. Meanwhile, the euro-zone’s flash PMI suggests the region... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Oct.) October’s modest rise in the euro-zone composite PMI left it still dangerously close to the no change level of 50. With hard data pointing to a possible fall in GDP in Q3, the region may still have... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update How vulnerable is non-core logistics property to risk aversion? Compared to previous bouts of risk aversion, the peripheral euro-zone and emerging European economic outlook is better. And, with investors now seeing the sector as a core portfolio component, the... 22nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB takes further steps towards QE Rumours that the ECB is considering corporate bond purchases suggest that the Bank is edging further into the realms of quantitative easing. But we think that it will need to buy sovereign bonds as... 21st October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Stress tests won’t revive the banking sector overnight The euro-zone’s latest bank stress tests may be more credible than previous versions and hence do more to restore confidence in the region’s banking sector. But the corrective measures required in... 21st October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Could rising risk aversion take the steam out of commercial property? The current rise in risk aversion may dent the growth in property investment volumes in H1 2015 as demand for secondary assets wanes. However, with bund yields remaining low, prime property demand and... 21st October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Lower oil prices to have bigger implications for ECB than Fed The recent drop in oil prices is widely assumed to have strengthened the case for monetary policy remaining looser for longer. However, while we think it may encourage the ECB to loosen monetary... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Markets and Merkel won’t let austerity slip Last week’s rise in peripheral euro-zone bond yields mainly reflected contagion effects from Greece’s sell-off, rather than general fiscal concerns. Indeed, draft 2015 budgets showed most countries... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update In the euro-zone at least, the markets have got it right While the recent weakness of financial markets appears hard to square with the economic outlook insome parts of the world like the US, in the euro-zone the markets’ concerns appear more justified. 16th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Aug.) & Final CPI (Sep.) The widening of the euro-zone trade surplus in August reflected a drop in importsrelated to weak domestic demand rather than a rise in exports. It still looks like theeconomy failed to grow in Q3 and... 16th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Peripheral industrial property values look set to outperform In contrast to most core euro-zone markets, industrial yields across the periphery have yet to narrow to the same extent as office and retail yields. Hence, while the recent weak euro-zone production... 14th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Aug.) & German ZEW (Oct.) August’s fall in euro-zone industrial production and the sharp drop in German ZEW investor sentiment in October add to the risk that the single currency area may be entering its third recession in six... 14th October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Can US and euro-zone inflation really diverge? It would be unusual for inflation pressures to be building in some advanced economies and falling in others. Nonetheless, this is exactly what we expect to happen in the next year or two, as US... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will the euro-zone drag the UK into the doldrums? Concerns that the euro-zone’s faltering recovery will drag the UK’s own into the doldrums appear somewhat overblown. Past experience shows that the UK economy has been able to outperform the euro-zone... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Stalled recovery adds to pressure on policymakers The European economic recovery has weakened, with the euro-zone now at risk of recession and countries outside the region feeling the effects on their exports. While the euro-zone’s peripheral... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
