Europe Economics Weekly Weak data increase the chance of ECB QE Events last week gave support to our long-held view that the ECB will have to take the plunge and launch a full-blown quantitative easing programme in the coming months. Survey data added to mounting... 29th August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) Although July’s euro-zone monetary data showed some further signs of improvement, the bigger picture is that lending is still contracting and the data suggest there is still a significant risk of... 28th August 2014 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB to hint strongly at QE and ultimately deliver The ECB finally seems to be facing facts, withPresident Mario Draghi conceding at Jackson Holethat the economy is too weak and that inflationexpectations have dropped. We do not expect anyaction this... 28th August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Aug.) August’s larger than expected fall in the EC Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI)added to worrying evidence that the euro-zone recovery is struggling to gaintraction. 28th August 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Further ECB easing could see Bund yields rebound The weakness of the euro-zone economy and the persistent threat of deflation should keep German government bond (Bund) yields relatively low. However, any scaling back of fiscal austerity and the... 26th August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB finally facing facts President Draghi’s comments at Jackson Hole supported our long-held view that the ECB will take theplunge into full-blown quantitative easing, probably around the turn of the year. 26th August 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global economy too reliant on the US Preliminary business surveys for August, which were published by Markit today, suggest that growthcontinues to be sluggish in Japan and the euro-zone and that China’s economy is slowing. In contrast... 21st August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Weak economic data suggest euro-zone rental upturn not imminent Recent, disappointing euro-zone economic data reaffirm our view that a meaningful, demand-driven commercial property rental upturn is not yet on the horizon. Given a looming floor for yields, this... 21st August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Jun.) June’s euro-zone trade data provided yet further evidence that the external sectorremains too weak to make up for the region’s feeble domestic recovery. 18th August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Stalled recovery intensifies pressure on the ECB The euro-zone’s economic recovery came to a complete halt in the second quarter at what shouldhave been a very early stage. There were some temporary factors at play which suggest thatgrowth should... 18th August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2 Prov.) The stagnation of the euro-zone economy in the second quarter further underlinedthe need for the European Central Bank (ECB) to take bolder policy action to addressthe continued weakness of the... 14th August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Jun.) June’s euro-zone industrial production data confirmed that industry’s recovery has faltered and suggested that the sector may have dragged on GDP growth in Q2. 13th August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Jun.) & Final PMIs (Jul.) June’s rise in euro-zone retail sales points to a further modest increase inconsumer spending in the second quarter. But more timely indicators, such astoday’s final PMI figures, suggest that the... 5th August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Credit conditions easing, but still very tight The ECB’s latest Bank Lending Survey (BLS) added to the evidence that improving conditions in the euro-zone’s financial sector are finally feeding into the real economy. But it will be a while before... 4th August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Capital values boosted by yield compression Economic indicators paint a mixed picture of the euro-zone recovery. On the one hand, the situation in the peripheral economies is improving. But at the same time, growth in the core economies appears... 1st August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jul.) Although progress remains slow in many countries, the latest euro-zone fiscal data provided moreevidence that peripheral governments are gradually strengthening their fiscal positions. 1st August 2014 · 1 min read
