Europe Economics Weekly Will the euro-zone continue to outperform? In the first half of this year, GDP in the euro-zone expanded at a faster pace than that in either the US or the UK. But while we remain very positive on the outlook for the euro-zone economy, the... 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Sharp rise in euro weighs on equities The euro has risen sharply over the past month and in early August reached its highest level against the US dollar since early 2015. Strikingly, the rise has occurred against a backdrop of broadly... 3rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Jun.) & Final PMIs (Jul.) June’s rise in euro-zone retail sales capped a strong quarter and suggests that household spending growth picked up in Q2. Although July’s final euro-zone Composite PMI implies that broader economic... 3rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Jun.) & Flash CPI (Jul.) While June’s unemployment data painted a positive picture of the euro-zone labour market, July’s CPI release confirmed that this strength is putting only modest upward pressure on underlying inflation... 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global growth recovered in Q2, set to hold up well Data published this week suggest that global economic growth almost certainly picked up a bit in Q2. We expect it to remain fairly rapid for the next year or two, even as China’s economy loses steam. 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jul.) July’s fall in the euro-zone Composite PMI leaves it still consistent with fairly strong growth. While the survey’s price indices also edged down, this seems unlikely to deter the ECB from tapering... 24th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Strong investment to bolster economic growth At this week’s ECB press conference, President Mario Draghi highlighted the continued improvement in the euro-zone’s economic performance. He reiterated that the region looks set for a period of solid... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How will the ECB react to the euro’s rise? The renewed rise in the euro since yesterday’s ECB press conference may increase speculation that the Bank will have to change tack. But we doubt that it will be too worried about the currency at... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB taper announcement likely in October Today’s ECB press conference made us more confident that tapering will come next year. An announcement of the policy now seems most likely to come in October, rather than at the next meeting in... 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Euro-zone will continue to impress The European economies are still in good shape, with the euro-zone benefitting from reduced political uncertainty and high levels of business and consumer confidence. We think that this strong... 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q2) In contrast to the latest business surveys, the ECB’s Q2 Bank Lending Survey provided some evidence that the economic recovery might slow. However, with demand for credit still increasing, and banks... 18th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Fiscal shackles loosen but little stimulus in sight Euro-zone member states appear to have put their public finances largely in order now, with the European Commission deeming this week that even Greece has made sufficient progress to become compliant... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (May) The widening of the euro-zone’s trade surplus in May adds to signs that GDP growth may have accelerated in the second quarter. And in contrast to the situation last year, we expect net trade to boost... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB to continue hinting at 2018 taper We expect the ECB to renew its hints of future QE tapering at its forthcoming meeting, despite the modest tightening of financial market conditions that such hints have caused already. We still see... 13th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (May) May’s sharp rise in euro-zone industrial production left it at its highest level since September 2008 and bodes very well for GDP growth in Q2. 12th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Could households withstand higher interest rates? Household debt has remained elevated in the euro-zone as a whole, but there has been significant deleveraging in the countries that needed it most. Given positive trends in the labour market, we... 11th July 2017 · 1 min read
