Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone inflation is approaching a peak After reaching a 47-month high of 1.8% in January, euro-zone consumer price inflation is set to rise further in the coming months. While we expect headline inflation to surpass the ECB’s near-2%... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Dec.) & Final PMIs (Jan.) December’s retail sales data suggest that household spending contributed to the pick-up in euro-zone GDP growth in Q4. And January’s Composite PMI implies that the economy got off to a steady start in... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Steady labour market recovery continues Recent data on the euro-zone’s labour market have been encouraging. December’s decline in the unemployment rate to 9.6% left it at its lowest since May 2009. We expect the labour market recovery to... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4), Unemployment (Dec.) & Flash CPI (Jan.) The latest data revealing that euro-zone GDP ended 2016 on a positive note and that inflation rose sharply in January will give the ECB food for thought, but we still expect the Bank to be buying... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Jan.) January’s rise in the European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) to a 70-month high suggests that the euro-zone economy started 2017 on a positive note. 30th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) December’s euro-zone money and credit data are consistent with steady economic growth. But they still point to inflation undershooting the ECB’s target. 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jan.) Despite January’s fall, the euro-zone PMI suggests that the economy continued to expand at a steady pace at the start of 2017. But the survey still points to a lack of inflationary pressure, which... 24th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Bank Lending Survey adds to case for loose ECB policy With the euro-zone economy performing fairly well and headline inflation on the up, the results of last week’s Bank Lending Survey were a timely reminder to the ECB that its job is far from done... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB sees sustained rise in inflation as a distant prospect President Draghi explained today that the ECB saw the recent rise in inflation as transient and outlined some tough conditions for future policy normalisation which are unlikely to be met for a very... 19th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What do Trump’s latest comments mean for Europe? The US President-elect’s perceived attempts to talk the dollar down and threat to impose tariffs on BMW imports to the US have limited implications for the euro-zone’s export prospects. But his... 18th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Euro-zone back in the spotlight in 2017 The European economies have continued to fare relatively well, with euro-zone growth in particular supported by a weaker currency and low inflation. However, a temporary surge in inflation this year... 17th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Nov.) The euro-zone’s goods trade surplus widened in November, but over Q4 as a whole it was probably broadly unchanged from Q3. Looking ahead, export growth might pick up, but we doubt that it will be... 16th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is euro-zone wage growth set to take off? Wage growth was subdued in 2016, but the recent decline in the euro-zone unemployment rate to an 87-month low, taken in isolation, points to a strong pick-up from here. On the face of it, that... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB to hold its course despite rising inflation The ECB will not announce any policy changes next week after last month’s pledge to buy at least €60bn of assets per month until the end of 2017. President Draghi is likely to restate the Governing... 12th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Nov.) November’s rise in euro-zone industrial production added to the evidence that GDP growth picked up in Q4. But while industrial growth might accelerate further in the near term, this is unlikely to... 12th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Dec.) November’s data brought further signs of public finances improving in the euro-zone’s periphery. But the Greek bail-out deal is at risk of collapse, and the Italian banking sector remains in a parlous... 11th January 2017 · 1 min read
